农业周观点：猪价偏弱运行，腌腊逐步开启

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The pig price is running weakly, but demand is expected to support prices as the year-end curing season begins. The medium to long-term outlook for the pig sector shows good logical support, emphasizing the value of allocation [3][8] - Key stocks in the pig sector include leading large-scale breeding groups such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as companies with growth potential like Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Huazhong Group [3][8] Summary by Sections Current Market Performance - The industry index for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery fell by 2.76%, ranking 24th out of 31 sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.91% [2][30] - The average price of pigs as of November 22 is 16.38 yuan/kg, showing a slight week-on-week increase of 0.7%, but a decline of 5.5% compared to the beginning of the month [3][8] Pig Industry Insights - In October, pig sales from 13 listed companies totaled 13.59 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 15.63%. The average price for October was 17.60 yuan/kg, down 1.36 yuan/kg from the previous month, with a year-on-year increase of 15.26% [9][10] - The average slaughter volume for the week was 157,292 heads, an increase of 1.98% from the previous week, indicating a slight recovery in demand [3][8] Long-term Outlook - The pig sector's valuation is at a historical low, with a PB ratio of 2.82, indicating good cost-effectiveness. The long-term profit levels in the pig breeding industry are expected to remain stable as production capacity returns to reasonable levels [8] - The industry is likely to enter a capacity reduction cycle as breeding profits shrink, which may catalyze future price expectations for pigs [8] Recommendations - Focus on leading breeding companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, and those with growth potential like Juxing Agriculture and Shennong Group [3][8] - The animal health sector is expected to recover alongside improvements in breeding operations, with significant market potential in the domestic veterinary medicine sector [18][19]