Domestic Economic Insights - October tax revenue increased by 1.8% year-on-year, marking the first positive growth this year[3] - The LPR remained unchanged in November, indicating a stable monetary policy environment[3] - Government spending in October reached 77.6% of the annual budget, slightly below the five-year average by 0.6 percentage points[13] International Economic Trends - The U.S. November Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is at 48.8, indicating contraction, while the Services PMI is at 57, showing expansion[4] - Japan plans a $1.4 trillion stimulus package, reflecting aggressive fiscal policy measures[4] - The Eurozone's October CPI final value is 2%, aligning with the central bank's target, while the UK CPI rose to 2.3% in October from 1.7%[4] Market Strategy Recommendations - A global strategy to buy U.S. dollars (+DXY) and sell U.S. Treasuries (-TU) is advised[5] - Domestically, a strategic approach to steepen the yield curve (+2×TS2503-1×T2503) is recommended[5] Risk Factors - Potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts poses a significant risk to market stability[6] - Concerns over rising debt risks in Europe and the U.S. could impact financial markets[6]
宏观利率图表205：趋势不变，市场短期仍在等待波动率的启动
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2024-11-25 01:32