农林牧渔行业投资策略周报：出海打开成长空间，饲料龙头扬帆远航

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that since 2023, China's feed enterprises have seen significant growth in overseas business, which has not only mitigated performance fluctuations due to the domestic feed industry's downturn but also opened up new growth opportunities. The global feed market is substantial, with an estimated total production of approximately 1.3 billion tons in 2023, of which China accounts for 300 million tons. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past three years is about 2.4% [10][68] - The report predicts that global feed capacity will maintain a moderate growth trend, driven by rising incomes, population growth, and urbanization in Southeast Asia, South America, and Africa, which will support the demand for meat and protein. Key growth areas will continue to be poultry and aquaculture feeds, with notable increases in aquaculture production in Latin America [10][68] - Structural changes in the global feed industry present opportunities for Chinese feed companies to expand globally. Geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuations in raw material prices are increasing the demands on procurement, supply chain management, and formulation technology for feed enterprises worldwide. Some countries are experiencing saturation in feed capacity, prompting a shift of production capacity to emerging markets [10][68] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report discusses the growth of China's feed enterprises in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, South America, and Africa, where companies like Haida Group, New Hope, and Tongwei Co. are accelerating investments and achieving rapid revenue and profit growth [10][68] Industry Tracking - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 0.2 percentage points, with the agricultural and fishery sector down by 2.8 percentage points, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 2.6 percentage points [88] Agricultural Product Price Tracking - As of November 22, the average price for lean pork in China was 16.4 CNY/kg, up 0.4% week-on-week and up 11.5% year-on-year. The average price for piglets was 501.1 CNY/head, up 5.3% week-on-week [84][92] - The report also notes that the price of broiler chickens in Yantai was 3.9 CNY/jin, up 1.3% week-on-week, and the price of chicken seedlings was 4.5 CNY/chick, up 7.7% week-on-week [84][102] Raw Material Prices - The domestic corn spot price was 2210 CNY/ton, up 0.1% week-on-week, while the soybean meal spot price was 3013 CNY/ton, down 0.7% week-on-week [115][117]