金属、非金属与采矿行业周报：锂价底部进一步确认，铜铝胜率渐强

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the copper-to-gold ratio continues to rise, indicating a stronger probability for copper and aluminum investments. Despite high absolute prices for industrial metals, the cautious economic outlook reflected in the rising gold-to-copper ratio suggests a potential for improved short-term performance in these metals [2][6]. - The lithium market shows signs of bottoming out, with recent price fluctuations indicating a rebound. The report emphasizes the importance of real demand recovery to support price increases in the medium term [6]. Summary by Sections Energy and Minor Metals - The report suggests a strategic bullish outlook on energy metal equities, particularly lithium, which has seen price rebounds due to increased demand expectations and supply disruptions. The long-term supply-demand fundamentals for lithium have improved significantly, although rapid price increases could hinder recovery [6]. - Cobalt supply dynamics are under scrutiny, especially in light of policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The report notes that both cobalt and nickel sectors are positioned for potential rebounds due to performance recovery and supply-side disruptions [6]. Industrial Metals - The copper-to-gold ratio is at historical extremes, indicating a cautious economic outlook. The report notes that recent copper and aluminum inventory reductions could support short-term prices, especially if smelting production expectations are adjusted downward [6]. - The report identifies several key stocks to watch in the copper and aluminum sectors, including Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and China Aluminum [6]. Precious Metals - The report discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors. It anticipates that gold prices may stabilize between $2,800 and $2,500 per ounce in the short term, with potential upward movement in the medium term as interest rates decline [6]. - The report recommends focusing on precious metal equities, particularly those related to gold and silver, as they may offer significant recovery opportunities [6].