周报：美联储降息预期再降温，国内经济再现积极信号

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75% on November 8, 2024, leading to a cooling of rate cut expectations[1] - As of November 24, market expectations for a rate cut in December are divided, with a 52.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 47.3% probability of no cut[1] - The market anticipates that the federal funds target rate will only be 50 basis points lower than the current rate next year, indicating limited room for further cuts[1] Group 2: Inflation and Currency Pressure - Trump's upcoming presidency is expected to introduce high tariffs and tax cuts, which may increase inflationary pressures in the U.S.[1] - As of November 22, the RMB/USD exchange rate was reported at 7.2452, an increase of 142 basis points from the previous week, indicating ongoing depreciation pressure on the RMB[1] - The central bank's efforts to stabilize the RMB through the midpoint rate have not alleviated the depreciation pressure significantly[1] Group 3: Fiscal and Real Estate Data - From January to October 2024, national public budget revenue was 18.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters[1] - In October, tax revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, marking the first positive growth of the year, which is a strong indicator of economic recovery[1] - Real estate sales data for November shows improvement, with major cities reporting positive year-on-year sales growth, indicating a recovery trend in the housing market[1]