房地产行业周度观点更新：决定复苏持续性的关键信号是什么？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [10]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is seeking a new equilibrium, with policies aimed at stabilizing prices and volumes showing initial signs of recovery. However, the sustainability of this recovery remains to be observed [6][8]. - The current housing market is approaching historical equilibrium, but structural pressures are still significant. Stronger industrial policies and macroeconomic feedback may be necessary for stabilization [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low actual mortgage rates for sustained demand, which requires lower nominal rates and potential targeted support from the central bank or fiscal policies [8]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 1.17% this week, with an excess return of +1.43% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 12th out of 32 industries [14]. - Year-to-date, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index has increased by 8.21%, with an excess return of -4.45% compared to the CSI 300, ranking 17th out of 32 [14]. Policy Updates - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have canceled the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary housing, increasing tax incentives for housing transactions starting December 1, 2024 [7][18]. - Guangzhou Anju Group has announced a collection notice for acquiring completed stock housing for affordable housing purposes, focusing on properties that meet specific criteria [7][18]. Sales Data - New housing and second-hand housing transaction volumes remain high, with new housing transactions showing a year-on-year increase of 14.8% in 37 cities, while second-hand housing transactions increased by 17.1% in 19 cities [8]. - The report highlights that the key to sustained recovery lies in identifying critical signals that will determine the longevity of the recovery [8].