农林牧渔行业报告：供需博弈激烈，猪价区间震荡

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" [3][4]. Core Views - The industry index has seen a significant decline of 2.76% this week, ranking 24th among 31 primary industries [13][15]. - The pig price has been fluctuating, with a national average of 16.25 CNY/KG, down 2.49% from the previous week. The market is experiencing a supply-demand tug-of-war, leading to expectations of continued price volatility [5][20]. - The white feather chicken market is showing strong prices due to a shortage of chicks, with the price reaching 4.7 CNY per chick, up 0.3 CNY from the previous week [6][34]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry index has decreased by 2.76%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 have decreased by 1.91% and 2.60%, respectively [13][15]. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Swine: Price Fluctuations and Slow Capacity Growth - The average pig price has shown a downward trend, with a notable drop to 16.1 CNY/KG mid-week before rebounding slightly due to increased demand and seasonal factors [5][20]. - Profit margins for self-bred pigs have narrowed to approximately 154 CNY per head, while purchased piglets are incurring losses of 63 CNY per head [21][24]. - The breeding stock has seen a slight increase, but overall capacity growth remains slow, with a year-on-year decline of 4.20% in breeding sows as of September [23][31]. White Feather Chicken: Strong Prices Amid Shortages - The price of chicks has remained robust, attributed to a decrease in overseas breeding stock and poor performance of current breeding chickens [6][34]. - The industry is expected to enter a production halt around mid-December, with production plans for the pre-Spring Festival already established, indicating sustained strong prices in the short term [34]. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have shown slight increases, with the price in Nanning at 6040 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY from the previous week [39]. - Soybean prices have decreased by 1.5%, with the imported price at 3756 CNY/ton [39]. - Cotton prices have adjusted downwards to 15220 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.7% [39]. - Corn prices have experienced minor fluctuations, averaging 2163 CNY/ton, down 2 CNY from the previous week [39].