锂电复盘，恰似那年，成长的起点

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the lithium battery industry, suggesting that it is at a growth starting point similar to 2020 [4][22]. Core Insights - The lithium battery industry has undergone nearly two years of profit adjustments, with the sector index declining from its peak in November 2021. The report suggests that the time and depth of industry consolidation have been sufficient, indicating a potential growth phase ahead [4][22]. - Demand for lithium batteries is expected to see significant growth, particularly in the domestic new energy passenger vehicle market, commercial vehicle electrification, and energy storage in developed and emerging markets by the end of 2024 [4][22]. - On the supply side, capital expenditures in the industry have been declining for eight consecutive quarters, with profitability nearing loss levels, yet leading companies remain on the left side of the cost curve, driving technological advancements and product iterations [4][22]. Summary by Sections Demand: "That Year" Was More Explosive, "Now" Is Also a Turning Point - The demand for lithium batteries surged in 2020-2021, driven by carbon emission regulations in Europe and a significant rise in consumption in China. The report anticipates that overseas demand will be a turning point in 2024-2025, with energy storage and commercial vehicles contributing to growth [9][30]. - The report concludes that while the explosive demand of 2020-2021 may not be matched, the industry is poised for recovery, with a potential growth rate exceeding 30% in 2025 and maintaining over 20% in 2026 [9][47]. Battery Materials: Deeper Bottoms, Stronger Alpha, Returning to Growth - The report highlights that the gross margins across the lithium battery supply chain have reached historical lows, indicating a thorough clearing process. The asset-liability ratios have increased compared to 2019-2020, limiting expansion capabilities [10][54]. - The competitive landscape shows that leading companies maintain strong advantages, while the competition among mid-tier and lower-tier companies has worsened. The report emphasizes the need for companies to deepen their overseas presence and ensure supply chain security [10][58]. Lithium Carbonate: Fundamental Improvement Expectations Drive, Equity Outperforms Commodities, Elasticity Expected - The report draws parallels with the previous cycle, noting that while commodity prices are bottoming out, equity performance is expected to react more swiftly to fundamental improvements. The current market conditions suggest a significant potential for recovery in the lithium sector [11][22].