造纸月月观（拾）：浆价震荡，造纸龙头停产阶段性提振纸价预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the paper industry, specifically for Sun Paper and Bohui Paper [9][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the price of pulp has been declining due to the impact of new production capacities and weak demand, leading to a decrease in paper prices. It is expected that the oversupply situation will persist until the first half of 2025. However, unexpected production halts by leading companies are likely to improve the supply-demand relationship for white cardboard and cultural paper in the short term. The market's expectations for paper prices have started to recover, and there is potential for slight price increases as paper prices are at historical lows [5][24]. Summary by Sections Pulp Market - The pulp market is experiencing a downward price trend due to new production capacities and weak downstream demand. The report notes that the price of broadleaf pulp has continued to decline, while needle pulp prices are fluctuating. As of late October, the prices for needle pulp, broadleaf pulp, and chemical pulp were 6,230, 4,650, and 3,600 RMB per ton, respectively, showing significant declines since June [6][29]. Paper Products - The report indicates that Q3 profits for paper products have decreased compared to the previous quarter, with most paper prices declining. As of the end of October, prices for corrugated paper and boxboard increased by 42 and 30 RMB per ton, respectively, while other paper types saw price declines. The report emphasizes the need to monitor demand recovery, particularly for cultural paper as orders are expected to increase in November [7][8]. Investment Perspective - The report expresses optimism regarding investment opportunities in leading companies within the white cardboard and cultural paper sectors, including Bohui Paper, Sun Paper, Yueyang Forest Paper, and Guanhao High-tech. It anticipates that the oversupply in the white cardboard and cultural paper industries will be around 1.5 to 2 million tons by 2025, but recent production halts by major players may help balance supply and demand. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong barriers and safety margins, as well as those with significant price elasticity and low valuations [8][24].