周报美联储降息预期再降温，国内经济再现积极信号

Economic Indicators - As of November 22, 2024, the general public budget revenue for January to October was CNY 18.5 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters[6] - In October, tax revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, marking the first positive growth this year, indicating a strong directional impact on economic recovery[6] - The government fund budget revenue for January to October was approximately CNY 3.6 trillion, down 19% year-on-year, with October's decline improving to 10% from September's 14.21%[6] Real Estate Market - From November 1 to November 23, 2024, all four first-tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) reported positive year-on-year growth in new housing sales area[8] - Among 13 second-tier cities, 8 showed positive year-on-year growth in new housing sales area, while 5 reported negative growth[8] - The current real estate market is characterized by a price stabilization trend, which is crucial for market recovery[11] Monetary Policy and Market Expectations - The market is divided on whether the Federal Reserve will lower rates by 25 basis points in December, with probabilities of 52.7% for a rate cut and 47.3% for no change[6] - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.1%, and the five-year LPR is steady at 3.6%, reflecting a cautious approach to further rate cuts due to internal and external constraints[12] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net liquidity injection of CNY 66.6 billion through open market operations this week, indicating efforts to maintain reasonable liquidity levels[11] Currency and Inflation Outlook - As of November 22, 2024, the RMB/USD exchange rate was reported at 7.2452, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 142 basis points, indicating ongoing depreciation pressure on the RMB[7] - The anticipated implementation of comprehensive tariff policies under the Trump administration is expected to exacerbate inflation risks in the U.S., which may further constrain the Fed's ability to cut rates[6]