广东发布2025年电力市场交易有关事项通知，海气供给宽松成本端促天然气顺价+放量

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - As of October 2024, a total of 3.551 billion green certificates have been issued nationwide, with wind power accounting for 43.01% and solar power for 16.02% of the total issued in October 2024 [1]. - The Guangdong Energy Bureau has released guidelines for electricity market transactions in 2025, introducing a pricing model based on "absolute price + curve" and a benchmark price for coal [1]. - The average electricity purchase price from the grid in November 2024 is 412 RMB/MWh, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2% but a month-on-month increase [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW utility index decreased by 0.47% from November 18 to November 22, 2024, with gas (+0.66%) and hydropower (+0.27%) showing gains, while thermal power (-1.14%) and solar power (-1.98%) experienced declines [99]. 2. Electricity Sector Tracking 2.1. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption from January to October 2024 reached 818 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, with the tertiary industry and residential consumption growing at higher rates [107]. 2.2. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation from January to October 2024 was 780 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with hydropower growth slowing down [119]. 2.3. Electricity Prices - The average grid purchase price in November 2024 was 412 RMB/MWh, with a year-on-year decline of 2% and a month-on-month increase [132]. 3. Gas Sector - Natural gas prices have risen due to the onset of the heating season, with domestic price reforms continuing [3][3.1]. 4. Investment Recommendations - For natural gas, companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages are recommended, including Xin'ao Co. and Jiufeng Energy [1]. - In thermal power, investment opportunities are suggested for companies like Anhui Energy and Huadian International [1]. - For green energy, companies like Longjing Environmental Protection are highlighted due to improving asset quality and growth potential [1]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power are recommended due to low costs and strong cash flow [1]. - Nuclear power companies like China National Nuclear Power are noted for their growth potential and improving profitability [1].