海外周报：关注12月美联储不降息风险

Economic Growth - Analysts expect the US economy to maintain a stable growth rate of 2% in 2025[2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model revised the Q4 2024 GDP growth forecast from +2.5% to +2.6%[2] - The New York Fed's Nowcast model adjusted the Q4 2024 GDP growth forecast down from +2.06% to +1.91%[2] Inflation - Analysts predict the CPI year-on-year growth rates for Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 to be 2.6%, 2.3%, 2.3%, 2.4%, and 2.4% respectively[3] - The latest inflation swaps indicate that traders expect CPI year-on-year growth to rebound to +2.74% in November and +2.76% in December[3] - There are concerns about potential inflation risks due to Trump's domestic fiscal policies and external supply constraints[3] Monetary Policy - Analysts anticipate a 25 basis points rate cut in December 2024, followed by quarterly cuts of 25 basis points throughout 2025[4] - The Fed's policy rate is expected to decrease from 4.5% in Q4 2024 to 3.5% by Q4 2025[4] - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding the pace of future rate cuts, with some advocating caution due to persistent inflation concerns[4] Risks - Potential risks include excessive rate cuts leading to inflation rebound or loss of control, and prolonged high rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[4]