煤炭行业政策点评:长协机制稳中有进,市场化程度有所提高
Shanxi Securities·2024-11-25 05:58

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-A" for the coal industry [1]. Core Insights - The 2025 plan for long-term coal contracts emphasizes a gradual improvement in the long-term contract mechanism while increasing marketization [1][3]. - The signing volume requirements for both coal and electricity parties have been relaxed, but the quality of contract fulfillment has become stricter [3]. - The pricing mechanism continues with a "base price + floating price" model, with the addition of the China Electricity Coal Index (CECI) to enhance market sensitivity [4][7]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The signing task for coal companies has been reduced from 80% to 75% of their own resource volume, while electricity companies must still meet at least 80% of their demand [3]. - The quality of contract fulfillment has been enhanced, requiring clear quality clauses and a settlement mechanism for coal quality deviations [3]. Pricing Mechanism - The pricing mechanism remains stable, with the floating price now linked to multiple indices, including the CECI, which reflects market prices more accurately [4][7]. - The requirement for railway transport contracts to exceed 200,000 tons has been removed, facilitating better logistics and cost reduction for electricity companies [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading coal companies with high long-term contract ratios, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and key coal-producing enterprises like Shaanxi Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy [5][7]. - It also highlights the stability of performance in coal-electricity integrated companies, recommending attention to firms like Xinjie Energy and Huaihe Energy [7].