Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - Base metals are expected to see demand expectations stabilize, with prices anticipated to fluctuate. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are decreasing, and domestic fiscal policies are gradually being implemented to support domestic demand recovery. Industrial metal supply remains weak, and high costs for electrolytic aluminum are expected to lead to price fluctuations in industrial metals. Attention is drawn to the results of the 2025 copper TC long-term contract negotiations. Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum (A+H), Western Mining, Jincheng Mining, China Aluminum (A+H), Yun Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [1][2] - In the steel sector, supply and demand are recovering, with steel prices slightly declining and profitability continuing to decrease. On the supply side, blast furnace operations have increased, but steel mill profitability is declining, with significant constraints on pig iron supply. Demand is expected to recover in the short term, with a focus on the implementation of macroeconomic policies. Cost pressures are likely to weaken profitability, suppressing raw material procurement demand. The supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable in the short term, with steel prices fluctuating. Recommended stocks include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Jiuli Special Materials, and Yongjin [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Performance of Nonferrous Metals Industry - From November 18 to November 22, the Shenwan Industrial Metal Index fell by 2.33% to 1808.41 points, while the Precious Metal Index rose by 2.41% to 14798.49 points. The Small Metal Index increased by 0.63% to 16775.14 points, and the New Metal Materials Index rose by 3.47% to 6606.18 points [26] 2. Metal Prices - Base metals prices showed mixed trends: LME copper rose by 0.02% to $8,972.50 per ton, LME aluminum fell by 1% to $2,630 per ton, LME lead increased by 3.43% to $2,018 per ton, LME zinc rose by 0.63% to $2,972 per ton, LME tin increased by 1.47% to $28,950 per ton, and LME nickel rose by 2.20% to $15,815 per ton. SHFE copper fell by 0.14% to ¥73,760 per ton, SHFE aluminum decreased by 1.73% to ¥20,420 per ton, and SHFE lead rose by 1.28% to ¥16,975 per ton [46][49] 3. Macroeconomic Overview - The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic policies on the metal industry, emphasizing the importance of government measures to stabilize economic growth and their potential effects on metal demand and pricing [1][2]
金属及金属新材料行业:金价的韧性或超预期
GF SECURITIES·2024-11-25 05:58