宏观周报：本周看什么？国资三个集中、全球大宗展望

Group 1: Global Commodity Outlook - The World Bank projects a 5% decline in the overall commodity price index by 2025, followed by a further 2% drop in 2026, driven by improved supply conditions[31] - Energy prices are expected to decrease by 6% in 2024, with Brent crude oil averaging $80 per barrel, falling to $73 per barrel in 2025[31] - Agricultural prices are forecasted to decline by 9% in 2024 and 4% in 2025, stabilizing in 2026 due to favorable global harvests and climate conditions[36] Group 2: State Capital Concentration - The effective concentration of state capital in strategic emerging industries is anticipated to enhance national security in defense, food, and energy sectors, with increased support for information security, aerospace, and renewable energy industries[4] - Emphasis on strategic and specialized restructuring is expected to facilitate the integration and development of related emerging industries, allowing leading companies to grow stronger[4] - State capital will focus on technology attributes and emerging fields, promoting high-tech and high-quality production capabilities, thereby enhancing overall productivity[4] Group 3: High-Frequency Macro Data - Daily average steel production has shown a month-on-month increase, while construction material inventory has decreased year-on-year[5] - Passenger car wholesale and retail sales have increased year-on-year, indicating the effectiveness of vehicle replacement policies[5] - The land transaction area in second and third-tier cities has risen year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in real estate activity[5]