攻守转换点还需等待

Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, requiring a reversal of internal and external factors for a breakthrough[1] - The MSCI China Index's earnings forecast for 2024 has decreased by 1.2% since the recent peak on November 5, 2023[2] External Influences - The US dollar index has risen to a high of 108, leading to a significant outflow of foreign capital from emerging markets, with a net outflow from Hong Kong stocks reaching $1.82 billion, the highest in nearly five years[3] - The short-selling ratio of the Hang Seng Index has increased to 15.2%, approaching the reversal signal level of approximately 19%[4] Sector Performance - The earnings growth rate for non-financial offshore Chinese stocks in Q3 was approximately -1.6%, with the internet and high-dividend sectors performing better than expected, while the pharmaceutical sector lagged[2] - Recent data shows that the number of stock buybacks has increased, with 250 cases and a total amount of 7.16 billion yuan, nearing levels seen in April 2023[4] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on stability, with recommendations to invest in public utilities, telecommunications, and resilient internet sectors[5] - The market's short-term rhythm may be influenced by changes in overseas liquidity, geopolitical tensions, and the impact of the strong dollar on the Hong Kong stock market[5]