Economic Overview - In 2024, China's GDP reached 94.97 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%[10] - The contribution rates to GDP growth were 49.9% from final consumption, 26.3% from capital formation, and 23.8% from imports and exports[11] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 42.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%[40] - Manufacturing investment grew by 9.3%, while real estate investment saw a decline of 10.3%[46] Export Performance - From January to October 2024, total exports amounted to 2.93 trillion USD, recovering to 2022 levels[26] - In October 2024, exports to ASEAN, EU, and the US increased by 15.8%, 12.7%, and 8.1% respectively[26] Monetary Policy - M2 growth rate decreased from 8.7% at the beginning of the year to 7.5% by October 2024[76] - The People's Bank of China is expected to continue net buying government bonds to improve monetary supply structure[74] Price Levels - CPI showed slight improvement, while PPI fell by 2.9% in October 2024[59] - The upward pressure on prices is anticipated to come from monetary policy and improved market demand[59] Industrial Performance - Industrial profits fell by 3.5% year-on-year by the end of Q3 2024, with state-owned enterprises facing significant pressure[70] - The manufacturing PMI indicated weak expansion, with production indices showing some recovery[80] Real Estate Market - Real estate development saw a 12.4% decline in construction area and a 22.6% drop in new starts from January to October 2024[48] - Policy measures are expected to gradually stabilize the real estate market in 2025[52] Geopolitical Factors - The potential re-election of Trump in 2024 may lead to increased tariffs on Chinese goods, impacting trade dynamics[32] - The anticipated tariffs could reach as high as 60% under extreme scenarios, affecting China's exports to the US[32] Consumer Spending - Retail sales totaled 39.90 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in 2024[22] - The recovery in consumer spending is supported by rising asset income and active private sector production[22]
宏观2025年投资策略报告:经济结构性矛盾现拐点 2025年注重破局
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2024-11-25 07:29