Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to weak US crude oil demand and concerns about global supply surplus, international oil prices experienced continuous weak and volatile adjustments in Q3. However, the Fed's 0.25% interest rate cut in September, Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities, and the EU's plan to increase sanctions on Russia limit the further decline of international oil prices. Technically, US WTI crude oil prices may rebound with volatility [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - International oil prices were in a weak and volatile adjustment in Q3 due to weak US demand and concerns about supply surplus. The OPEC+ meeting on September 7 decided that producers will adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day joint production cut in October. The market was caught off - guard by the plan to resume the 1.65 million barrels per day joint production cut in October after the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut, which had a negative impact on the oil market. After September, the peak oil demand season ended and refinery maintenance increased, further suppressing oil prices [1][5]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Analysis Global Crude Oil Supply - Demand - OPEC maintains its 2025 oil demand forecast and slightly raises the 2026 forecast. It expects global oil demand to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026. The IEA reports that global oil inventories are surging at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap is widening as supply expands and demand growth slows. The IEA raises the daily supply increments of OPEC and its allies for this year and next by 370,000 barrels and 520,000 barrels respectively [7]. - The OPEC+ decision on September 7 has a negative impact on the oil market, and future production plans are uncertain. As of the week ending September 19, US crude oil daily production was 13.501 million barrels, up 19,000 barrels from the previous week. The number of US online drilling oil wells reached 424 as of the week ending September 26, the highest since July [10][12]. - US refinery operating rates decreased slightly, but crude oil processing volume increased. As of the week ending September 19, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased moderately, and gasoline and distillate inventories also declined. The EU's 19th round of sanctions on Russia and Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries may change global trade flows [2][16]. China's Crude Oil Supply - Demand - China is the world's largest oil importer and the second - largest oil consumer. In 2025, China's crude oil production and processing increased steadily. In August, China's industrial crude oil production was 18.26 million tons, up 2.4% year - on - year, and the processing volume was 63.46 million tons, up 7.6% year - on - year. From January to August, China imported 376 million tons of crude oil, up 2.5% year - on - year. Russia is China's largest source of crude oil imports [22]. - As of September 24, the operating load of Shandong refineries increased slightly. In the future, the operating load may first decline and then rise, and the supply of gasoline and diesel will fluctuate accordingly [24]. 3. Technical Analysis - In Q3, US WTI crude oil futures prices were in a weak and volatile adjustment at a low level. Since September, WTI crude oil futures have shown strong support at around $60 per barrel, and prices may rebound with volatility [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the RU2601 contract oscillating between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton, the NR main contract between 11,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the synthetic rubber BR main contract between 11,000 - 12,300 yuan/ton. In the long term, there is a higher probability of an upward breakthrough [1][31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the third quarter of this year, rubber prices generally showed a pattern of rising and then falling. In July, stimulated by the "anti - involution" policy in China, rubber prices rose. Tensions between Cambodia and Thailand also boosted market sentiment, but prices dropped after the conflict ended. In August, prices fluctuated within a narrow range due to a decline in tire enterprise operating rates. In September, prices declined again due to weak demand, high semi - steel tire inventory, and the approaching peak production season [3] 2. Industrial Structure Analysis 2.1 Upstream - Since September, raw material production in the Xishuangbanna area has gradually increased, but recent rainfall has made raw material release unstable. Typhoon "Hikaa" affected Hainan in late September, limiting rubber production, but the impact was limited. Some areas in Thailand's main production regions are still affected by rainfall, with slow and unstable raw material release. As the market declined, raw material purchase prices weakened, but the low inventory of rubber factories supported the bottom of the cup - rubber purchase price. Upstream processing plants have high production costs and lack processing profits [5] - The global rubber production capacity is still in an increasing cycle. Although the growth rate of newly opened - up areas has slowed down since 2020, the production capacity remains large. In 2020, production decreased due to the pandemic and weather factors, and the marginal output has been declining since 2021. ANRPC predicts that in July 2025, global natural rubber production will slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, and consumption will drop by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons. For the first 7 months, cumulative production is expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption will decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption will increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons [7][8] - According to QinRex data, in the first 8 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [9] 2.2 Midstream - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import volume was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase [11] - As of the week of September 25, the total inventory of natural rubber futures warehouse receipts was 153,570 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week. The total inventory of 20 - number rubber futures warehouse receipts was 44,756 tons, a slight increase of 100 tons [11] - As of the week of September 19, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 4.537 million tons, a 0.94% decrease. The inventory in the bonded area was 71,100 tons, a 6.32% decrease, while the general trade inventory was 382,600 tons, a 0.13% increase [11] 2.3 Downstream - As of the week of September 25, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 65.04%, the same as the previous week and 8.7% higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.52%, the same as the previous week but 4.27% lower than the same period last year. Tire enterprises are facing pressure on inventory due to slow export order delivery and weak domestic demand [15] - In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative production was 795.467 million pieces, a 1.6% increase. From January to August, China's rubber tire exports reached 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% increase, and the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a 4.6% increase [17] - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. Among them, new energy vehicle production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of total vehicle sales. From January to August, China's automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a 13.7% year - on - year increase, and new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, an 87.3% year - on - year increase [20] - In August 2025, heavy - truck wholesale sales reached about 87,000 vehicles, a 40% year - on - year increase and a 2% month - on - month increase. From January to August, heavy - truck sales reached about 711,000 vehicles, a 14% year - on - year increase, and annual sales are expected to exceed 1 million vehicles [25] - At the end of August 2025, the total inventory of all - steel tires in China was 10.19 million pieces (from 25 monitored sample enterprises), a slight decrease from the end of July. The total inventory of semi - steel tires was 18.53 million pieces, also a slight decrease from the end of July [26] 3. Future Outlook - Supply side: Currently, heavy rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas affects rubber tapping, leading to tight raw material output. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao, the main domestic distribution hub, continues to decline. In the long term, the aging of rubber trees in Indonesia and Malaysia will lead to a decline in future production [31] - Demand side: The improvement in the downstream tire market is limited. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories has weakened, and the spot trading pace has slowed, reducing the support for natural rubber prices. The inventory of semi - steel tire products remains high, and the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises has been declining this year [31] - Technical side: In the short term, rubber prices will fluctuate within a range. In the long term, there is a higher probability of an upward breakthrough [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, the fundamentals are not optimistic. Supply pressure and high inventory are the key factors suppressing prices, and there are no signs of a turnaround in the short term. The trading strategy is to short on rallies unilaterally and consider rolling to sell out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [3][67]. - For glass, the fundamentals are neutral. Policy and news have a significant impact on the FG2601 contract. The glass futures price in the fourth quarter may show a volatile trend, with the price center likely to be higher in the first half and lower in the second half. The trading strategy is to focus on band trading and consider selling deep out - of - the - money call options [4][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review Soda Ash - In Q1 2025, the soda ash price fluctuated, with a decline in the second half of December due to factory maintenance and a rebound later as enterprises resumed production. In February, the price first dropped and then rebounded. In March, the price fell despite improved fundamentals [6]. - In Q2 2025, the soda ash price showed a smooth downward trend due to increased supply and slower demand growth [7]. - In Q3 2025, the price first rose and then fell. In July, the price increased with the rise of coking coal futures. In August, supply reached a historical high and demand was weak, leading to a price drop. In September, the price fluctuated, and it was relatively firm before the National Day due to downstream restocking [7]. Glass - In Q1 2025, the glass futures price trended downward. In January, the futures were weak but the spot price rebounded. In February, the price continued to decline due to high inventory and slow recovery of processing enterprises. In March, the price first dropped to a low and then rebounded, but it couldn't be sustained [8][10]. - In Q2 2025, the glass futures price showed a smooth downward trend due to poor macro - environment and low real - estate demand. In June, the price rebounded due to the rise of coal prices [10]. - In Q3 2025, the price first rose under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy and then fell back. In September, the price rebounded with the arrival of the consumption peak season [10]. 3.2 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis Price and Spread - In Q3 2025, the spot price of soda ash in various regions first rose and then fell, and the futures price also showed a similar trend. The spot price decline was greater than that of the futures, and the basis decreased by 150 yuan/ton compared to the end of June [13]. Profit, Production, and Capacity Utilization - By September 25, 2025, the ammonia - soda production profit was - 37.2 yuan/ton, and the combined - soda production profit was - 77.5 yuan/ton, both showing a decline compared to the end of June. However, the capacity utilization rate remained high, above 80% in Q3 and above 85% in September. The weekly production was mostly above 700,000 tons, and the monthly production in September increased compared to August [17]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.9515 million tons, a decrease of 115,400 tons compared to the end of June. The light - soda inventory was 729,100 tons, a decrease of 76,100 tons, and the heavy - soda inventory was 922,400 tons, a decrease of 39,300 tons. The heavy - soda inventory was digested faster after August due to the rebound of the photovoltaic glass market and the ignition of some float glass production lines [22]. Future Capacity Expansion Plan - In the first half of 2025, new capacities of Lianyungang Alkali Plant and Hubei Shuanghuan were put into production. In the second half, there are still 3.5 million tons of capacity to be put into operation, including the second - phase project of Yuanxing Energy, which was successfully ignited on September 19 and entered the commissioning stage [27]. Downstream Demand - **Float Glass**: In Q3 2025, the spot price of float glass in most regions rose, but it decreased in Guangdong. The futures price also rose and then fell. The production profit of glass enterprises improved. The daily melting volume increased to 160,200 tons, and the enterprise inventory decreased. However, the deep - processing enterprise operating rate declined, and the terminal real - estate demand remained weak [29][32][33]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: In Q3 2025, the photovoltaic glass price rebounded, and the daily melting volume reached 88,800 tons after a rebound. The enterprise inventory days decreased to 14.16 days. The domestic photovoltaic component installation volume and export volume showed different trends. The installation volume declined after May, and the export volume increased in August but is likely to decline after September [48][54]. - **Light - Soda Demand**: The demand for light soda is relatively stable. The PPI of glass products continued to decline, the production of synthetic detergents decreased, and the production of lithium carbonate increased steadily [60]. 3.3 Outlook and Trading Recommendations - For soda ash, the supply surplus problem may worsen in the fourth quarter. The trading strategy is to short on rallies unilaterally and consider rolling to sell out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [67]. - For glass, the daily melting volume may remain stable with possible short - term fluctuations. The trading strategy is to focus on band trading and consider selling deep out - of - the - money call options [68].

国信期货油脂油料季报 政策不确定加剧 期待四季度季节性行情 油脂油料 国信期货研究 Page 1 2025 年 9 月 28 日 蛋白粕方面，国际大豆方面，四季度美豆面临单产和出口的双重影响。单产 下调是大概率事件，下调幅度存在不确定性。影响市场最大的因素在于美豆出口 方面，11月中美经贸会谈成为关键。CBOT大豆底部宽幅震荡延续，950-1150美分/ 蒲式耳或将维持。南美大豆出口与播种进度或将对四季度国际大豆市场产生冲击 ，市场波动的在于巴西升贴水。四季度南美大豆迎来播种期，拉尼娜出现的可能 性增加，这让天气扰动增强，警惕出现南旱北涝的局面。尽管四季度国内大豆到 港量逐步减少，但随着供给的有效补充，前期供给担忧或将减弱。从需求来看， 由于国内生猪存栏去化缓慢，国内豆粕需求稳中有增。豆粕库存拐点尚未到来， 去库存或将在11月开启。豆粕现货基差或低位回升。从成本来看，受累于阿根廷 大豆及豆粕成本的拖累，连粕1月合约波动区间或在2850-3200元/吨之间。国内豆 粕的走势或因中美经贸谈判而震荡反复。成本驱动加强。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116号 分析师：曹彦辉 从业资格号：F0247 ...

国信期货硅产业链季报 工业硅、多晶硅 政策交易后期，价格震荡前行 / 国信期货研究 Page 1 2025 年 9 月 28 日 主要结论 三季度季度工业硅显性库销比已经下降至 200%以内，这主要是因为交割库 存消化幅度较大，另外因为多晶硅企业开工率上行，增加了对原材料工业硅的需 求。到四季度，西南地区中小企业会陆续停炉，但产量能否快速下降还要看西北 地区开工率变化。在下游需求方面，三季度多晶硅企业生产利润尚可，多晶硅产 量高企，但国内光伏终端需求偏低迷，后期多晶硅想要维持供需平衡必须下调开 工率，对原材料的需求量也会有所减少。有机硅方面，企业生产亏损依然严重， 地产需求低迷且尚未有大规模刺激政策，有机硅终端需求难有改善，后期有机硅 DMC 产量可能维持在 21 万吨左右，对原材料工业硅需求偏弱。铝合金产量保持 稳定增长态势，终端汽车需求旺盛，对工业硅需求尚可。出口需求在下半年大爆 发，但四季度可能是前高后低的情况。基于当前工业硅企业的生产情况、供需数 据推算四季度工业硅行业显性库销比环比三季度可能会上行，但可能不会达到二 季度的水平。工业硅价格可能呈现震荡走势，综合季节性来看工业硅期货价格波 动区间可能为 ...

/ 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货贵金属季报 金银 降息周期开启 金银强势突破 2025 年 9 月 28 日 主要结论 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 2022 年 12 月 25 日 2025 年三季度，贵金属市场整体呈现"先震荡蓄势，后强势爆发"的走势。 7 月至 8 月，金银在货币政策预期摇摆与地缘局势扰动中逐步夯实底部；进入 9 月，随着美联储降息落地、避险情绪升温及资金持续涌入，金银价格开启主 升浪，内外盘联动屡创历史新高。截至 9 月 27 日，纽约金最高触及 3824.6 美 元/盎司，成功突破 3800 美元重要关口，最终收于 3789.8 美元/盎司；内盘沪 金同步走强，刷新历史高点至 865.28 元/克，站稳 850 元关键位上方，收盘报 862.50 元/克。白银表现更为亮眼，纽约银强势突破 45 美元/盎司整数大关， 最高升至 46.945 美元/盎司，收于 46.365 美元/盎司；沪银亦同步攀升，突破 万元大关后继续上攻，最高触及 10974 元/千克，收于 10936 元/千克。值得关 注的是，9 月以来内外盘白银累计涨幅均超 10%，进一步凸显其在金融属性与 工业需求共振 ...

/ 国信期货研究 Page1 国信期货有色（镍、不锈钢）季报 镍 黑天鹅灰犀牛齐舞有色仍在强势风口 底部区间 沪镍或震荡上行 2021 年 4 月 25 日 2025 年 9 月 28 日 ⚫ 主要结论： 行情方面，沪镍主力合约 2511，2025 年 9 月 25 日收于 122990 元/吨，本季 度镍价整体呈区间震荡走势。 宏观层面，全球央行开启降息周期，加拿大、美国、日本、美国等央行相继 公布利率决议。9 月 18 日凌晨（北京时间）的美联储降息备受市场关注：美联储 宣布降息 25 个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 4.00%–4.25%。这是自 2024 年 9 月开启本轮降息周期以来的第四次降息，也是 2025 年内的首次降息。美联 储决策者的预测显示，2025 年将再降息 50 个基点，2026 年和 2027 年将各降息 25 个基点。美联储 19 位官员中，有 1 位官员认为 2025 年不降息，有 6 位官员认 为应累计降息 25 个基点，即降息 1 次，有 2 位官员认为应累计降息 50 个基点， 即降息 2 次，有 9 位官员认为应累计降息 75 个基点，即降息 3 次。有 1 位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter of 2025, the ferroalloy market experienced a small "roller - coaster" trend, with prices rising first and then falling. The driving factors were cost and supply - demand. In summer, entering the peak season of coal - power, coal prices stabilized and rose, reversing the expectation of continuous decline in coal - power prices, which led to a sharp increase in ferroalloy prices. However, after the price increase, production profit increased significantly. Due to the over - capacity in the expansion cycle, production recovered rapidly. With demand stable or having a weakening expectation, supply growth exceeded demand, causing the market price to decline later [3]. - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, for manganese - silicon, the price is likely to fluctuate weakly. Manganese ore has no bottleneck, and the manganese - silicon smelting capacity is severely over - capacity. The probability of successful industry joint price protection in the capacity expansion cycle is low. For silicon - iron, the price will generally fluctuate around energy prices. It is expected to be difficult for prices to rise or fall significantly. Overall, the ferroalloy trend in the fourth quarter is limited, and prices may fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Manganese - silicon: In the third quarter of 2025, the price of manganese - silicon futures first rose and then fell. As of September 26, the main contract rose from 5638 yuan/ton to 6414 yuan/ton and then dropped to 5848 yuan/ton, with a 3.65% increase. In terms of fundamentals, the supply - demand of manganese - silicon changed from surplus to shortage in the first half of the year and then back to surplus in the third quarter. The cost increase due to the peak season of coal - power in July led to a price increase, with a slight adjustment in August and overall fluctuations in September [5]. - Silicon - iron: As of September 26, the main contract of silicon - iron futures rose 5.91% to 5660 yuan/ton in the third quarter. The price decline in the first half of the year was mainly due to the decline in coal - power prices. After June, the supply reduction of thermal coal and the recovery of thermal - power demand led to a price rebound. In August, the market worried about the end of the peak - season benefits of coal - power, causing the price to decline. In September, coal prices stabilized, and the silicon - iron trend was highly correlated with coal prices [10]. Supply - Demand Analysis Policy Impact on Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - There were various policy events in 2025, including changes in manganese ore supply due to natural disasters and shipping disruptions, anti - dumping measures imposed by some countries on Chinese steel products, and local policies in China to promote the high - quality development of the ferroalloy industry, such as the implementation plan in Ningxia and the ecological environmental protection inspection [17][19][21]. Manganese - Silicon Supply - In 2025, the manganese - silicon industry reduced production in the early stage, and production increased quarter - on - quarter in the third quarter. In August, the national comprehensive start - up rate was 44.95%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.91%. The output was 909,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.94%. The production profit was poor in general, with a short - term profit in July and a decline in August and September. The manganese - silicon industry has serious over - capacity, and the northern region has high new - capacity investment this year. Manganese ore changed from shortage to surplus, with imports reaching a record high in August. The inventory of manganese ore is currently low but is expected to increase in supply, and it has no support for the manganese - silicon price [23][25][32]. Manganese - Silicon Demand - Manganese - silicon demand is mainly in the steel - making industry, and the demand was stable in 2025 but is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. Although the production of steel products such as rebar increased in August, the terminal real - estate market is poor, and there is a possibility of reducing rebar production to relieve the pressure of over - supply, which is negative for manganese - silicon demand [39][40]. Silicon - Iron Production Profit - From January to May 2025, coal prices continued to decline, and the cost of silicon - iron decreased. The profit was good before March, but turned negative in April and May. After June, the profit was generally poor, with a slight recovery in July and a decline again in August, and a slight repair in September [44]. Silicon - Iron Output - Due to the overall price increase in the third quarter, the output of silicon - iron continued to rise. In August, the national comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 59.43%, an increase of 5.61% compared with July. The output was 493,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.43% [47]. Silicon - Iron Demand - In 2025, the export of silicon - iron decreased year - on - year. In the third quarter, with the increase in domestic prices, export profit decreased, and exports were relatively weak. The production of magnesium, the second - largest demand for silicon - iron, recovered. The production of steel products increased in 2025, but the production of crude steel decreased. The price of silicon - iron is expected to fluctuate around energy prices in the fourth quarter [50][53][54]. Summary and Outlook - The ferroalloy market in the third quarter experienced a small "roller - coaster" trend. The driving factors were cost and supply - demand. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the manganese - silicon price is likely to fluctuate weakly, and the silicon - iron price will generally fluctuate around energy prices. Overall, the ferroalloy trend is limited, and prices may fluctuate [56][57].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, in the fourth quarter, with new cotton hitting the market, the expected output is over 7.3 million tons, subjecting Zhengzhou cotton futures to significant hedging pressure. Consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period was lackluster, but the overall industrial chain showed slight improvement with gradually decreasing finished - product inventories. The price range is expected to be between 12,500 - 15,000 yuan/ton [1][38]. - Internationally, macro - factors still bring great uncertainty to the cotton market. The Fed may cut interest rates within the year, potentially supporting US cotton prices. Fundamentally, the supply of cotton in the Northern Hemisphere will gradually increase in the fourth quarter, while consumption remains stable, with no major fundamental contradictions. The operating range of US cotton is expected to be between 60 - 75 cents/pound [2][38]. - The recommended operation strategy for Zhengzhou cotton is mainly band trading [3][39]. 3) Summaries by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Review - In the third quarter of 2025, Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a trend of weakening in a range and then breaking down. The price of the main contract was roughly between 13,450 - 14,350 yuan/ton. Influenced by factors such as good cotton growth in Xinjiang, extension of the Sino - US tariff suspension period, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the price fluctuated [5]. - In the third quarter of 2025, ICE US cotton showed a weakening trend in a range, with the main contract price between 65.8 - 69.50 cents/pound. Affected by factors like high Brazilian cotton exports, Indian tariff exemptions, and changes in US weather and USDA reports, the price fluctuated [6]. b) Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply**: Most institutions predict an increase in the cotton planting area in the 2024/25 season, mainly driven by the expansion in Xinjiang. The comprehensive meteorological conditions in the cotton - growing areas were favorable, laying a good foundation for an increase in yield. Different institutions have different yield forecasts, with the report's estimate ranging from 7.3 - 7.7 million tons. The final yield depends on the weather during the harvest period, but a bumper harvest is likely [8][10][11]. - **Seed - cotton Purchase Price**: As of September 22, 2025, the average boll - opening rate in Xinjiang was about 83.2%. The expected purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton is 6.2 - 6.4 yuan/kg, and the current purchase price of hand - picked seed cotton is around 7.2 yuan/kg. Zhengzhou cotton futures above 14,000 yuan/ton face significant hedging pressure [14]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a 40% increase from the previous month but a 51.6% decrease year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 590,000 tons, a 72.6% year - on - year decrease. Future imports are expected to show a short - term month - on - month slow increase and a long - term low - level oscillation, with an annual import volume of about 1.2 - 1.4 million tons [19]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: Since September, the decline of Zhengzhou cotton futures has affected textile enterprises' sentiment, with cotton yarn prices dropping by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. However, the decline in cotton yarn prices was smaller than that of cotton, widening the cotton - yarn price spread and slightly improving textile enterprises' profits. The operating rate of textile enterprises did not rise significantly during the peak season, while that of weaving enterprises increased relatively significantly. Since August, the finished - product inventories of both types of enterprises have been decreasing [21][25][27]. c) International Market Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's September cotton supply - demand report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume are expected to increase, while the beginning and ending inventories will decrease. The ending inventory will reach a four - year low [30]. - **Fed's Interest - rate Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. There are still two interest - rate meetings in 2025, and most Fed members expect two more interest - rate cuts totaling 50 basis points within the year. The expectation of interest - rate cuts may lead to a weaker US dollar, which may support US cotton prices [34].

新季苹果陆续摘袋，盘面或兑现减产预期 苹果 2025 年 09 月 28 日 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货苹果季报 主要结论 三季度苹果期货主力合约 AP2601 呈现偏强震荡的格局。 供应端来看，据卓创资讯统计，截至 2025 年 9 月 25 日，全国冷库苹果的库 存量约 14.79 万吨，低于去年同期 10.75 万吨，处于往年历史同期最低水平。分 地区来看，目前山东产地冷库库存量约 10.96 万吨，陕西地区库存量约 3.69 万 吨，非主产区冷库剩余库存量约 0.14 万吨。客商采购难度增加，低库存量对盘 面形成一定支撑。陕西产区新季苹果逐步摘袋，今年果个偏小，果农对新季苹果 的价格预期较强。 需求端来看，中秋、国庆双节备货，需求有所恢复。据卓创资讯统计，截至 2025 年 9 月 25 日，全国冷库库存比例约为 1.12%，周度环比下降 0.45 个百分点， 去库存率为 98.24%。因进入去库尾期，有部分样本点出现清库等情况，不同冷 库之间出货情况差异较大，数据误差略有扩大。卓创资讯将从下期开始暂停统计 旧季冷库苹果库存，预计新季苹果第一期库存 11 月 6 日统计，修正时间约为 1 个 ...