研究所 成本支撑较弱 价格延续下跌 2025/8/17 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 沥青基本面 3 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1 沥青期货主力合约走势 研究所 沥青期货主力合约BU2510震荡下行，区间跌幅为0.86%，区间振幅为1.80%。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1.2 山东重交沥青基差 研究所 山东重交沥青基差 数据来源：钢联数据 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 1.3 山东-华南重交沥青价差 研究所 山东-华南地区重交沥青价差 数据来源：iFinD 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 6 1.4 山东-东北重交沥青价差 研究所 山东-东北地区重交沥青价差 数据来源：iFinD 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 研究所 P 第 a 二 r 部 t 分 2 沥青基本面 2.1 沥青生产综合利润 研究所 当前山东地炼沥青生 ，环比上升187.52元/ 吨。 产理论利润 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current core contradiction in the urea market lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand, and the short - term price may continue the weak oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors cautiously handle the current market environment with a weak oscillatory mindset [49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Urea Futures Main Contract Trend**: From August 11th to 14th, the main contract UR2601 of urea futures oscillated downward, with an interval decline of 0.80% and an interval amplitude of 2.72% [7]. - **Urea Futures Basis Situation**: On August 13th, the basis of small - particle urea in Shandong was 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton compared to last Wednesday, and it was at a low level compared to the past five years [11]. 3.2 Urea Fundamental Analysis Supply - side - **Urea Production Enterprise Operating Rate**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.45%, a 1.73% increase compared to the previous period and a 7.38% increase year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past 5 years [16]. - **Urea Plant Weekly Maintenance Loss**: This week, the weekly maintenance loss of urea plants was 19.19 tons, a 4.48% decrease compared to the previous period and a 21.83% decrease year - on - year [18]. - **Weekly Output of Coal - based and Gas - based Urea**: Currently, the weekly output of coal - based urea is 1.1 million tons, a 2.8% increase compared to the previous period; the weekly output of urea produced from pipeline fertilizer - using gas is 290,000 tons, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period. The supply pattern remains loose [20]. Demand - side - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Operating Rate**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 36.24%, a 1.63% decrease compared to the previous period and a 4.5% increase compared to 2024 [23]. - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise In - plant Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of compound fertilizers of 32 chemical enterprises in China is 826,500 tons, a 3.26% increase compared to the previous period and a 12.68% increase compared to 2024 [25]. - **Melamine Operating Rate**: The average operating load rate of Chinese melamine enterprises is 49.21%, a 8.42% decrease compared to the previous period and a 24.27% decrease year - on - year [29]. Inventory - side - **Urea Enterprise Inventory and Port Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory is 860,000 tons, a 9.83% increase compared to the previous period; port inventory is 790,000 tons, a 51.92% increase compared to the previous period [32]. Cost - side - **Synthetic Ammonia Price**: On August 14th, the daily low - end market price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,150 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton increase compared to August 7th [38]. - **Coal Market Operation**: With the restorative rebound of the low - end price of anthracite in some regions, the cost support of coal - based urea plants has strengthened. Currently, the aggregated price of Yangquan anthracite fine coal is 770 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period; the aggregated price of Jincheng anthracite washed small coal is 900 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged compared to the previous period [40]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Date | Beginning Inventory (kt) | Production (kt) | Total Supply (kt) | Consumption (kt) | Export (kt) | Total Demand (kt) | Ending Inventory (kt) | Supply - Demand Ratio (%) | Price (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 10E | 1437 | 6200 | 7638 | 5200 | 500 | 5700 | 603 | 134 | 1800 | | 2025 - 09E | 1037 | 6300 | 7338 | 4900 | 1000 | 5900 | 1437 | 124.37 | 1750 | | 2025 - 08E | 757 | 6270 | 7028 | 4570 | 1100 | 5670 | 1037 | 123.95 | 1830 | | 2025 July | 931 | 6093 | 7025 | 5890 | 700 | 6590 | 1757 | 106.6 | 1817.22 | | 2025 June | 840 | 6146 | 6986.03 | 6159 | 66.24 | 6225.24 | 931 | 112.22 | 1838.8 | | 2025 May | 865 | 6366 | 7231.22 | 6391.2 | 2.44 | 6393.64 | 840 | 113.1 | 1912.94 | | 2025 April | 805 | 6004 | 6809.42 | 5944.4 | 2.25 | 5946.65 | 865 | 114.51 | 1894.95 | | 2025 March | 1266 | 6219 | 7485.04 | 6680 | 2.3 | 6682.3 | 805 | 112.01 | 1867.78 | | 2025 February | 1499 | 5551 | 7050.34 | 5784.3 | 1.36 | 5785.66 | 1266 | 121.86 | 1776.73 | | 2025 January | 1378 | 5719 | 7097.25 | 5598.2 | 2.65 | 5600.85 | 1499 | 126.72 | 1695.43 | | 2024 December | 1191 | 5463 | 6654.24 | 5275.7 | 2.27 | 5277.97 | 1378 | 126.08 | 1819.64 | | 2024 November | 1135 | 5421 | 6556.1 | 5365 | 2.22 | 5367.22 | 1191 | 122.15 | 1868.4 | | 2024 October | 903 | 5841 | 6744.08 | 5600 | 3.5 | 5612.5 | 1135 | 120.16 | 1900.26 | [44] 3.3 Future Outlook - **Supply - side**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.45%, a 1.73% increase compared to the previous period and a 7.38% increase year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past 5 years. Driven by the continuous efforts of the supply - guarantee policy and the release of the efficiency of previous technological improvements, it has become normal for production enterprises to operate at high loads, and the overall supply of urea will continue the loose pattern. In the short term, the high - supply situation is unlikely to change significantly [49]. - **Demand - side**: Currently, it is the traditional off - season for demand. The downstream market generally has a wait - and - see attitude, mainly following up with rigid demand, and has no strong willingness for large - scale centralized procurement. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 36.24%, a 1.63% decrease compared to the previous period and a 4.5% increase compared to 2024; the panel industry is still in the traditional off - season, and the average operating load rate of melamine enterprises is 49.21%, a 8.42% decrease compared to the previous period and a 24.27% decrease year - on - year [49]. - **Inventory - side**: The overall inventory pressure still exists. Urea enterprise inventory is 860,000 tons, a 9.83% increase compared to the previous period; with the orderly collection of goods at the port, the current port inventory is 790,000 tons, a 51.92% increase compared to the previous period. As the preparation and production of autumn fertilizers gradually start, it is expected that the enterprise inventory will first increase and then decrease [49]. - **Cost - side**: The supply of the anthracite market may not change much, and the price will fluctuate with the increase or decrease of demand and market sentiment. The natural gas price will be range - bound [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In general, the current core contradiction in the urea market lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand, and the short - term price may continue the weak oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors cautiously handle the current market environment with a weak oscillatory mindset [49].

目 录 CONTENTS 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 2 期货市场环境：宏观、比价、基差 3 螺纹钢供需概况 4 后市展望 国信期货研究所 第 一部 国信期货研究所 供需边际转弱 关注限产落地情况 ----国信期货螺纹钢周报 2025年8月17日 国信期货研究所 P a rt 分 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 1.1 近期重要信息概览 国信期货研究所 经济数据 政策信息 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1. 国家统计局数据显示，原煤生产有所下降。7月份，规上工业原煤产量3.8亿吨，同比下降3.8%；日均产量1229万吨。1—7月份，规上工 业原煤产量27.8亿吨，同比增长3.8%。 2. 1—7月份，全国房地产开发投资53580亿元，同比下降12.0%；其中，住宅投资41208亿元，下降10.9%。 1—7月份，房地产开发企业房 屋施工面积638731万平方米，同比下降9.2%。其中，住宅施工面积445107万平方米，下降9.4%。房屋新开工面积35206万平方米，下降 19.4%。其中，住宅新开工面积25881万平方米，下降18.3%。房屋竣 ...

1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 周度分析与展望 研究所 现货旺季不旺 盘面继续挤升水 ——国信期货生猪周报 2025年08月17日 研究所 研究所 过去一周生猪现货震荡弱反弹，受养殖端扛价及消费季节性支撑，期货终结前一周的反弹而下跌，其中LH11、LH01表现更弱 。基差略有走强，但西南地区现货对LH09仍贴水达400元/吨左右。基本面来看，根据不同机构统计的样本企业仔猪出生数据 ，后期理论出栏量仍将维持增加的格局，育肥猪料销量环比增速与23、24年同期接近，参考这两年的供应季节性走势，后期 供应压力仍较大。需求来看，二育继续低迷，消费后期季节性走强。综合来看，后期供需双增，但结合过去几年情况来看，旺 季对价格提振不明显，而目前期货升水现货，后期向现货靠拢可能性更多。操作上，震荡偏空思路。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 1.生猪期货行情 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND, 国信期货 4 2.生猪现货行情 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND,涌益咨询, ...

研究所 新粮上市将近 玉米延续弱势 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年08月17日 3 研究所 研究所 目 录 2 国际玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 1 周度分析与展望 3 国内玉米市场动态 4 玉米淀粉市场动态 周度观点 研究所 过去一周玉米现货总体偏弱，山东地区上量偏少，企业前半周压价明显，但后期压价力度减弱，现货有所企稳，东北地区受拍 卖影响亦表现为弱势，南北港口因库存继续去化，现货相对较强。期货先涨后跌，周线收出长上影线。基差小幅走弱，受主力 移仓影响，C2511合约明显弱于其他合约。基本面来看，随着储备粮拍卖继续进行及新粮上市将近，持粮贸易商出货意愿上升 ，供应压力增强。需求端来看，饲料生产尽管有增长，但生猪去产能、降均重政策打压饲料需求预期，同时小麦对玉米替代优 势仍存，饲料企业对玉米采购需求受抑制。同时深加工端利润仍然不佳，也对消费形成负面影响。综合来看，后期玉米供需趋 于宽松，市场维持震荡寻底的格局。操作上，震荡偏空思路。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 目 录 2 国际玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 1 周度分析与展望 3 国内玉米市场动态 4 玉米淀粉市场动态 1. ...

研究所 政策影响加剧 菜油冲高回落 ----国信期货油脂油料周报 2025年8月17日 研究所 目录 CONTENTS 1 蛋白粕市场分析 2 油脂市场分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 蛋白粕市场分析 一、蛋白粕市场分析 研究所 本周行情回顾：本周CBOT大豆冲高回落，价格从低位大幅走高。周初美国总统在社交平台发布消息，市场对美国大豆出口需求改善憧憬。美国中西部部分农场地带炎热干燥天气带来提振， 此外美国农业部发布月度供需报告之前，粮食贸易商也在调整头寸。美豆触底反弹，随后USDA报告利多，种植面积大幅下调，抵消了美豆单产的上调，美豆产量同比大幅回落，库存创近三 年来新低，美豆不断走高。周四投资者获利了结叠加出口需求忧虑，豆油期货下挫，美豆高位回落。受此影响，连粕市场先扬后抑，主力合约一度涨至3190一线。国内豆粕现货相对坚挺，市 场提货明显增加，豆粕库存稳中有降。周初连粕一度走低，主要是由于美国总统社交平台发布消息，多头避险平仓。但随着中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明的发布，国内连粕止跌反弹，市 场对于未来供给的担忧再起，周三随着USDA报告利多出台，美豆走高以及巴西升贴水同涨，这使得进口成本 ...

研究所 偏强运行，等待新季产量落地 ——国信期货苹果周报 2025年8月17日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 本周行情回顾 2 供给端情况 3 需求端情况 4 后市展望 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 本周行情回顾 一、行情回顾 研究所 本周苹果期货主力合约AP2510小幅回调后延续上涨。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：卓创资讯 国信期货 6 研究所 第 P 三 a 部 r 分 t3 需求端情况 需求端：产区进入清库尾声 研究所 Ø 据卓创资讯统计，截至2025年8月14日，全国冷库库存比例约为3.50%，周度环比下降0.41个百分点，同比降低2.8个百分点， 去库存率为94.50%。因进入去库尾期，有部分样本点出现清库等情况，不同冷库之间出货情况差异较大，数据误差略有扩大。 r 分 t2 供给端情况 供给端：库存量低于去年同期水平 研究所 Ø 根据卓创资讯公布的最新一期库存数据，截至2025年8月14日，全国冷库苹果剩余总量46.13 ...

1 走势回顾 2 基差价差 3 供需分析 研究所 P 第 a 一部 r 分 t1 走势回顾 研究所 短线回落 有望再次上行 ----国信期货热卷周报 2025年8月17日 目 录 CONTENTS 4 后市展望 1.1 热卷主力合约走势 本周热卷主力合约走势高位回落后，短线窄幅震荡。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1.2 热卷现货走势 期货反弹后回落，现货跟随。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 研究所 P 第二 a 部 r 分 t2 基差价差 2.1 热卷期现价差走势 品类 数值 01基差 24 05基差 10 10基差 18 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 2.1 热卷期现价差走势 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 研究所 P 第三 a 部 r 分 t3 供需分析 3.1 热卷利润 2.2 冷热价差 数据来源 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures main contract SP2511 fluctuated and rose, with a pullback after reaching a high. In the later - stage outlook, it is recommended to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long - position strategy on dips as the market faces the transition between off - peak and peak seasons in late August [6][29] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2511 fluctuated and rose, with a pullback after reaching a high [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - As of August 14, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5779 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from last week, turning from a decline to stability; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4163 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from last week, also turning from a decline to stability [10] - In July 2025, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.7652 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 613.56 US dollars/ton. From January to July, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 6.5% and 3.4% respectively compared with the same period last year [14] - As of August 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0829 million tons, up 4.25% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase [17][29] - In June 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 1.87% month - on - month and 27.23% compared with June 2024. Inventory in most European countries' ports increased month - on - month [20] - Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption. As of August 14, the operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 0.88 percentage points from last week; that of double - offset paper decreased by 0.50 percentage points; that of white cardboard increased by 5.34 percentage points; and that of household paper increased by 2.02 percentage points [24] 3. Future Outlook - As of August 14, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.0829 million tons, up 4.25% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase. The destocking rhythm has accelerated recently, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of port inventory [29] - In the new round of external quotations, the price of Indonesian hardwood pulp has increased. Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton increase in the Asian market for bleached eucalyptus hardwood pulp in August 2025, and the Brazilian eucalyptus hardwood pulp price also increased by 20 dollars/ton. Supported by the external cost, there is a certain sentiment of hoarding and price - holding among industry players, but the downstream paper mills have limited acceptance due to pressure on profit margins, resulting in a slight adjustment of pulp prices [29] - Starting from late August, the market faces the transition between off - peak and peak seasons, and the demand and purchasing sentiment may change. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction and consider a long - position strategy on dips [29]

2025年8月17日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 白糖市场分析 2 后市展望 研究所 郑糖反弹后转为震荡 现货回升 ——国信期货白糖周报 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 郑商所白糖期货价格走势 一、白糖市场分析 研究所 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 郑糖本周反弹，周度涨幅1.63%。 ICE期糖低位回升，周度涨幅1.91%。 ICE期糖价格走势 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1、现货价格及基差走势 研究所 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 0 5 10 15 20 25 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 2、广西、云南销售情况 研究所 数据来源：广西糖协 云南糖协 国信期货 140 160 11月 12月 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 30 35 7月 8月 9月 2019/20 2020/21 20 ...