轻工纺服行业周报20241118-1122：亚玛芬增长亮眼，关注运动鞋服高景气

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4][17]. Core Viewpoints - The textile and apparel industry index increased by 0.06% during the week of November 18-22, 2024, while the light manufacturing sector decreased by 0.46%. In comparison, the CSI 300 index fell by 2.60% [3][4]. - The light industry is expected to benefit from favorable policies that stimulate real estate recovery and the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" policy, leading to sustained high consumer enthusiasm in home furnishings [4]. - The overall consumption environment is showing signs of weak recovery, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand boosting consumer confidence, particularly in outdoor and sports apparel sales [7][8]. Summary by Sections Light Industry - The "old-for-new" policy has revitalized the home furnishings market, with significant sales increases reported during the National Day holiday. For instance, Guangdong's home renovation sales reached approximately 2.92 billion yuan, and daily sales of home appliances in Shanghai increased by 140% compared to the pre-holiday period [4]. - Key companies to watch include Oppein Home, ZBOM Home, and KUKA Home, which are expected to benefit from market confidence recovery and valuation restoration [4]. Paper & Packaging - The paper industry is experiencing a positive outlook, with companies raising prices and expected profit increases in Q4. The average price of corrugated paper has risen by 0.91% recently, indicating a recovery in industry profitability [5]. - Recommended companies include Sun Paper, Huawang Technology, and Wuzhou Special Paper, which are anticipated to achieve stable growth through capacity expansion and improved supply chain efficiency [5]. Export Chain - The light industry export chain, including products like insulated cups and office furniture, is expected to benefit from the U.S. interest rate cut cycle and ongoing overseas replenishment demand. Companies such as Qiangxin Home and Jiayi Co. are highlighted for their strong overseas expansion strategies [6]. - Concerns regarding potential tariffs post-U.S. elections are deemed manageable, as leading export companies are proactively expanding overseas production capacities [6]. Textile Manufacturing - The long-term growth logic for textile manufacturing is driven by overseas production, market share increases, and enhanced core competitiveness. Vietnam's textile and apparel export target for 2025 is set at 470-480 billion USD, with a projected 11.26% year-on-year growth in 2024 [9]. - Companies to focus on include Huali Group, Weixing Co., and New Australia Co., which are positioned to benefit from the recovery in manufacturing sentiment [9]. Cross-Border E-commerce - The global e-commerce market is rapidly growing, with increasing competition among leading cross-border e-commerce platforms. Companies like Pinduoduo and SHEIN are recommended for their growth potential in overseas warehouses [10]. - Recent expansions include Temu's new site in Vietnam and Amazon's overseas flagship store on JD.com, enhancing the international business landscape [11].