2025年航运行业投资策略：内外逆转？寻供给刚性品种

Investment Rating - The report rates the shipping industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The shipping sector has shown the highest growth among transportation sub-sectors in 2024, closely correlating with geopolitical risk indices [2][14] - Despite a strong supply-side perception, weak terminal demand has led to disappointing freight rates and performance [17] Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2024 - The shipping index has outperformed other transportation sectors, with a significant correlation to geopolitical tensions [2][14] - Year-to-date freight rates and performance have not met expectations due to low terminal demand [17] 2. Oil Shipping - The global oil transportation market is projected to have supply-demand gaps of 2.9% and 1.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - VLCC supply remains rigid, with only five new ships expected to be delivered in 2025, while demand recovery is anticipated from fiscal stimulus and OPEC+ production increases [4][52] 3. Dry Bulk Shipping - The global dry bulk shipping market is expected to have supply-demand gaps of -1.9% for both 2025 and 2026 [5] - The Capesize segment faces minimal delivery pressure, while Supramax and Panamax will see peak deliveries in 2025 and 2026 [5][58] 4. Container Shipping - The container shipping market is projected to experience significant supply pressure, with gaps of -7% and -3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6] - The demand for domestic container shipping is expected to improve due to fiscal stimulus, despite challenges from geopolitical events and tariff impacts [6] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on supply-rigid varieties, ranking oil shipping, dry bulk, domestic container shipping, and international container shipping in order of preference [8] - Suggested stocks include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and others [8]