医药行业周报：带病人群需求或满足，商业健康险或开启医药新周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [2]. Core Insights - The demand for health insurance for patients with pre-existing conditions is expected to be met, potentially initiating a new cycle in the pharmaceutical industry driven by commercial health insurance [4][5]. - Basic medical insurance expenditure is slowing down, which may put pressure on the growth of the pharmaceutical industry [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Topic of the Week: Why Commercial Health Insurance Marks the Beginning of a New Cycle in Pharmaceuticals - Basic medical insurance expenditure is slowing, leading to pressure on the growth of the pharmaceutical industry. The correlation between urban employee basic medical insurance income and GDP growth is significant, while rural resident insurance income is closely tied to fiscal subsidies. As GDP growth slows, basic medical insurance expenditure may also decelerate, impacting the pharmaceutical sector [4][17]. - Commercial health insurance has significant growth potential, but challenges remain in meeting the needs of patients with pre-existing conditions. From 2014 to 2023, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for commercial health insurance income and expenditure was 21.3% and 23.5%, respectively, compared to 11.5% and 11.1% for basic medical insurance [5][29]. - The gradual implementation of medical insurance data elements is paving the way for commercial health insurance. Since 2020, policies have been introduced to facilitate data sharing, which is crucial for the development of commercial health insurance products and risk management [5][35]. 2. Weekly Market Review and Hotspot Tracking (November 18-22, 2024) - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector index fell by 2.4% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.2%. Year-to-date, the sector index has decreased by 11.9%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 24.6% [6][40]. - The top five performing stocks during the week included Rejing Biological (43.37%), Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical (21.92%), and Aomei Medical (21.01%) [6][54]. 3. Overall Investment Strategy and Allocation Thoughts - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: 1) Undervalued blue-chip stocks and Hong Kong stocks, 2) Companies with positive short-term changes and a price-to-book ratio below 1, 3) Firms with solid fundamentals, and 4) Companies with high growth expectations for H2 2024 [7]. - Specific companies to watch include: 1) Companies benefiting from increased demand for medical insurance data sharing, such as Guoxin Health and Jiamei Medical, 2) Companies in the medical services sector like International Medicine and Haijia Medical, and 3) Companies in the downstream medical device and pharmaceutical sectors with core competitive products, such as Hengrui Medicine and Kangfang Biotech [6][40].