建筑材料行业投资策略周报：地产成交边际回落，政策仍有空间

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Hold" [4] Core Insights - The "stabilize real estate" and "local debt" policies have significantly improved expectations for the sector, with further policy support anticipated. Despite facing short-term challenges, the construction materials industry is expected to gradually stabilize, with opportunities emerging as various segments reach their bottom [29][36] - The retail construction materials sector shows strong resilience supported by demand for second-hand and existing home renovations, while leading cyclical material companies continue to generate excess profits at the bottom of the cycle. Focus is recommended on growth-oriented, high-valuation elasticity consumer building materials, cement and glass leaders with bottom-line improvements, and opportunities in structural growth sectors like pharmaceutical glass [29][36] Summary by Sections 1. Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transaction data indicates a rebound in October due to policy catalysts, but a marginal decline in November. New home transaction volume in 50 cities shows a cumulative year-on-year decline of 26.3% for 2024, with a slight recovery in November [29][30] - Second-hand home transactions in 13 cities show a cumulative year-on-year increase of 6.5% for 2024, with significant growth in October and November [29][30] 2. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector benefits from stable long-term demand and increasing industry concentration. Leading companies are expected to have substantial growth potential despite the current downturn in new construction starts [41] - Key companies to watch include SanKeTree, Rabbit Baby, North New Materials, Weixing New Materials, China Liansu, Dongfang Yuhong, and East Peng Holdings, with additional attention on Jianlang Hardware and others [41] 3. Cement - Cement prices have seen a slight increase, with expectations of a fluctuating trend moving forward. The average national cement price is reported at 429 RMB/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 56 RMB/ton [29] - The industry is currently at a historical valuation low, with a positive outlook for companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [41] 4. Glass and Fiberglass - The fiberglass market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with electronic yarn prices remaining stable. The average price for 2400tex winding direct yarn is 3608 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous period [2] - Float glass prices have weakened, with an average price of 1453 RMB/ton, down 26.9% year-on-year. However, demand remains stable, and leading glass companies are currently undervalued [2][41]