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公用事业行业深度跟踪:广东电力交易方案发布,关注电量电价三因子
GF SECURITIES·2024-11-25 09:04

Investment Rating - The report rates the utility industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The Guangdong electricity trading plan has been released, emphasizing three factors: electricity volume, electricity price, and cost transmission. The market scale is set to expand significantly, with the annual trading scale limit for the generation side increasing by 60 billion kilowatt-hours compared to 2024 [1][37] - The report suggests a more market-oriented approach in Guangdong's electricity pricing, reflecting both fixed and variable costs, and indicates a positive outlook on electricity price agreements due to stable coal prices and tight supply-demand dynamics [1][38] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on supply-demand dynamics rather than being overly pessimistic about electricity volume and price agreements, suggesting that the thermal power sector is transitioning to more stable profit margins [1][38] Summary by Sections Section 1: Policy Review - The Guangdong Provincial Energy Bureau has issued a notice regarding electricity market trading for 2025, which includes an increase in market scale and improvements in the spot market operation mechanism [1][37][38] Section 2: Industry Data Tracking - Recent data shows that domestic and international coal prices have stabilized, while coastal power plant loads have decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year [1][8] - Natural gas prices have significantly dropped, with recent weeks showing signs of stabilization [1][9] Section 3: Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - Several companies in the utility sector are highlighted with "Buy" ratings, including China Power, Huadian International, and others, with reasonable values projected for their stocks [3] Section 4: Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the interconnection of four main lines of focus within the electricity sector: electricity price expectations, capital operations, and the performance of undervalued green and hydropower sectors [1][38] Section 5: Stock Performance Tracking - The report notes that the electricity index has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index by approximately 21% since late September [1][38]