宏观周报2024年11月第四周

Market Overview - The market experienced a decline with a weekly average trading volume of 17,064 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease in activity[27] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.91%, the Shenzhen Component by 2.89%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.03%[27] - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.01%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.89%[27] Economic Insights - There is increasing concern about the sustainability of real estate market performance, with high-frequency data stabilizing since mid-November and strong first-tier data showing signs of weakening[15] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has heightened risk aversion, negatively impacting domestic equity markets[15] Fixed Income Analysis - The bond market showed a mixed performance, with T2503 rising by 0.15% and TL2503 by 0.29%[27] - The yields on 10-year government bonds decreased by 1.75 basis points, while 30-year bonds fell by 2.25 basis points[27] International Factors - The U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates and strong economic data have dampened expectations for rate cuts, leading to a rise in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield by 8 basis points to 4.39%[15] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.76% to 107.4911, while the offshore RMB depreciated against the dollar, closing at 7.2597[27] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming data releases include China's October industrial profits and the U.S. October PCE price index, with previous values of -3.50% and 2.10% respectively[29]