年度策略报告姊妹篇：2025年计算机行业风险排雷手册

Industry Rating - The report rates the computer industry as Positive [1] Core Views - The capital market in 2025 is expected to experience valuation expansion driven by tail risk resolution and monetary easing, while profit improvement will lag due to gradual fiscal stimulus and slow expectation recovery [3][4] - The A-share market in 2025 will see a balanced style between large and small caps, with growth and cyclical sectors outperforming [5] - The report emphasizes risk identification as a tool to strengthen the 2025 annual strategy, not as a bearish signal [6][7] Key Industry Insights Computer Industry - The computer industry is expected to rebound in 2025, driven by debt resolution, domestic demand recovery, and intensified tech sanctions [15] - The SW Computer Index hit a 10-year low in September 2024 but surged 66.07% from September 24 to November 19, ranking first among 31 industries [15] - Institutional holdings in the computer sector reached a 10-year low at 2.37% in Q3 2024, down 0.13 ppts QoQ [15] - The industry is in the early stages of domestication, intelligence, and data assetization, with three major growth waves identified: mobile internet (2012), domestic substitution and cloud computing (2019), and AI (2022) [16] AI Applications - AI Agent and AI hardware are expected to accelerate vertical industry applications, with multi-modal large models leading the trend [26] - Key players include OpenAI, Google, Baidu, Huawei, and iFlytek, with a focus on companies leading in large model capabilities or vertical industry ecosystems [26] - The commercialization of AI applications may face challenges if model iterations fall short of expectations, impacting market demand [27] Computing Power - The computing power industry is entering a full domestication era, with domestic AI computing power expected to accelerate [35] - Key drivers include strong demand for AI computing power and US chip export restrictions, with domestic chips gradually closing the performance gap with NVIDIA [35] - Risks include unstable domestic chip supply and potential US policy changes that could affect the market share of domestic chips [35] Data Elements - The data elements industry is focused on policy-driven changes in data pricing and volume, with public data utilization being a key variable [49] - Companies with public data operation and governance capabilities are prioritized, alongside infrastructure and ERP providers [49] - The industry faces challenges in forming clear business models, with policy guidance and market practices still evolving [49] Key Stock Insights Recommended Stocks - Kingsoft Office (688111.SH): Benefiting from accelerated domestic substitution and WPS AI-driven SaaS transformation, but faces risks from weaker-than-expected user demand [59] - iFlytek (002230.SZ): Expected to fully match OpenAI's GPT-4 by 2025, with risks from slower-than-expected profitability recovery due to high R&D costs [61] - Hundsun Electronics (600570.SH): Likely to benefit from increased securities trading volume, but faces risks from potential IT budget cuts by securities firms [67] Popular Stocks - Hikvision (002415.SZ): Expected to recover with government debt resolution, but faces risks from US sanctions and domestic competition [63] - Desay SV (002920.SZ): High growth potential in autonomous driving, but risks include loss of market share due to in-house R&D by automakers and new competitors [65]