25年家电行业前瞻专题：如何看待以旧换新接续空间？

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, anticipating further potential for growth in 2025 due to government policies and market dynamics [2][44]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the synergy between government, enterprises, and platforms has significantly stimulated consumer participation in the home appliance market, leading to unexpected performance in the sector this year [2][44]. - It is projected that the home appliance stimulus policies will have further extension and release potential, particularly in terms of user conversion and policy support [2][44]. - The report identifies key brands benefiting from the current market dynamics, including Midea, Haier, Gree, Hisense, and TCL, while also pointing out future growth opportunities for brands like Hisense Home Appliances, Changhong Meiling, Roborock, and Supor [2][80]. Brand Market Performance Analysis - The report notes that various appliance categories have shown strong performance since the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy, with air conditioners leading in August, followed by refrigerators and black appliances in September, and a surge in cleaning appliances in October [8][10]. - The analysis indicates that the "old-for-new" initiative has not only elevated average prices but also significantly impacted brand market share, with leading brands like Gree, Midea, Haier, and Hisense showing notable improvements [12][13]. Policy Continuation Space Outlook - The report emphasizes that the current government subsidy policies are expected to expand in scope and intensity, which could lead to direct incremental growth in various regions and categories [2][44]. - It discusses the differentiation in regional demand release, attributing it to the pace of policy implementation and the flow of subsidies across provinces [49][50]. - The report also highlights the potential for additional categories to be included in subsidy programs, particularly high-value and long-tail appliances, which could further stimulate market growth [56][57]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading brands that are expected to benefit from the current market structure, including Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Hisense Home Appliances, and TCL Electronics [80]. - Future growth logic is suggested for brands like Hisense Home Appliances, Changhong Meiling, TCL Smart Home, Roborock, Ecovacs, and Supor, indicating their potential for significant returns [80].