智能汽车行业深度分析：智驾进入平价时代，主机厂自研方案分化影响产业格局

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a Buy rating to the smart car industry, maintaining the same rating as the previous assessment [3] Core Views - Smart driving enters the affordable era: With technological cost reductions and increased supply of new models, high-end smart driving features are now available in vehicles priced below 200,000 CNY, leading to a rapid increase in penetration rates [3][25][28] - Differentiation in OEM self-developed solutions: OEMs are divided into three tiers based on their capabilities, with top-tier companies like Tesla leading in integrated chip and software development, while lower-tier OEMs rely on external suppliers like Huawei [3][53] - Long-term opportunities for suppliers: The differentiation in OEM capabilities ensures sustained demand for Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, with AI chips and algorithm providers gaining prominence [3][159][175] Policy and Market Trends - Policy advancements: China's smart connected vehicle policies are progressing through four stages—road testing, demonstration applications, product access, and market regulation—with L3 autonomous driving expected to be fully operational soon [22][23] - Penetration rate growth: The penetration rate of high-end smart driving (excluding Tesla) increased from 1.6% in January 2023 to 5.2% in October 2024, driven by new models from brands like Xiaomi, Geely, and Changan [28][30] OEM Strategies and Competitive Landscape - Top-tier OEMs: Companies like Tesla, NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto are leading with integrated chip and software development, aiming for an Apple-like ecosystem [3][53] - Mid-tier OEMs: Traditional automakers like BYD, Changan, and Geely are adopting a mix of Huawei and NVIDIA solutions, focusing on self-developed algorithms for product differentiation [53][56] - Lower-tier OEMs: Companies with limited R&D capabilities, such as Seres and BAIC, rely on external solutions like Huawei's full-stack offerings [53][159] Supply Chain Impact - Tier 1 suppliers: The differentiation in OEM capabilities ensures long-term demand for Tier 1 suppliers, with competition varying across domains like smart driving, smart cockpit, and chassis control [159][160] - Tier 2 suppliers: AI chip and algorithm providers are gaining prominence, with NVIDIA, Huawei, and Qualcomm expected to dominate the high-end smart driving chip market [175][177] - Emergence of Tier 0.5 suppliers: Companies like Huawei and Momenta are evolving into Tier 0.5 suppliers by offering integrated solutions with product definition capabilities [180][181] Investment Recommendations - OEMs to watch: Huawei-backed companies like Seres, Changan, and BAIC, as well as leading smart driving OEMs like XPeng, Li Auto, and NIO [182] - Key suppliers: Tesla supply chain players like Yinlun, Top Group, and Xinquan, as well as companies benefiting from penetration rate growth like Bethel, Baolong, and Desay SV [182] - Technical services: China Automotive Engineering Research Institute is highlighted for its role in technical services [182]