煤炭行业周报（2024年第46期）：市场短期或稳中向好，25年电煤长协政策出台，综合价格边际上行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market has shown a slight decline recently, with port thermal coal prices decreasing and the coking coal market remaining weak. However, with the onset of winter and increased demand for heating, coal prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise [5][6] - The introduction of the 2025 long-term coal contract policy indicates a positive outlook for coal prices, which are anticipated to remain stable or slightly increase [6] Market Dynamics - Recent market dynamics indicate that the CCI5500 thermal coal price index has dropped by 13 RMB/ton to 832 RMB/ton, while the annual long-term contract price for November is 699 RMB/ton, remaining stable month-on-month [5][11] - The domestic port thermal coal prices have slightly declined, with production area prices also showing a downward trend due to higher temperatures and slow coal consumption by power plants [5][11] - The coal production capacity utilization rate for 100 sample thermal coal mines is at 92.0%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase week-on-week [61] Industry Outlook - The coal industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, which should support coal prices in the medium term [6][11] - Key companies to watch include those with stable earnings and high dividends, such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, as well as those with low valuations and long-term growth potential like Yanzhou Coal and China Coal Energy [6] Key Companies - Notable companies with a "Buy" rating include: - China Shenhua [10] - Shaanxi Coal [10] - China Coal Energy [10] - Yanzhou Coal [10] - HuaiBei Mining [10] - Shanxi Coking Coal [10]