煤炭行业周报:气温走低运价高企,关注度冬煤炭需求增加
Shanxi Securities·2024-11-25 11:44

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that with the drop in temperatures and high transportation costs, there is an increasing focus on winter coal demand. The demand for heating coal and non-electric coal is expected to grow, supported by economic stabilization policies [1][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Dynamic Data Tracking - Thermal Coal: As of November 22, the spot reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 833 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of -1.77%. The inventory at northern ports is 26.99 million tons, up 2.55% week-on-week [23]. - Metallurgical Coal: The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,640 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The average price for metallurgical coke is 1,880 CNY/ton, down 1.57% week-on-week [35][54]. - Coking Steel Industry Chain: The average price difference between coke and coking coal is 324 CNY/ton, down 9.75% week-on-week. The total inventory of coke at independent coking plants is 403,000 tons, up 2.15% [56]. - Coal Transportation: The coastal coal transportation price index is 876.87 points, with a weekly increase of 6.97%. Long-distance transportation costs are stable at 0.23 CNY/ton/km [62]. 2. Coal Sector Market Review - The coal sector continues to experience a market correction but outperformed the broader market index. The CITIC coal index closed at 3,632.79 points, down 3.44% [6]. 3. Industry News Summary - The report notes that as the year-end approaches, some companies may reduce coal production due to safety considerations. However, the demand for coal is expected to rise as winter approaches, supported by ongoing economic policies [7]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks and stable high-dividend stocks, particularly recommending companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy for stable dividends, while highlighting companies like Guanghui Energy and Pingmei Shenma for higher elasticity [7].