煤炭月度供需数据点评：10月供给持续回升，制造业投资延续高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the coal industry [1]. Core Insights - The coal supply has shown a slight increase in the first ten months of 2024, with cumulative production reaching 3.892 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.20%. However, the growth rate has decreased compared to the same period in 2023 [15]. - Manufacturing investment continues to grow significantly, with fixed asset investment increasing by 3.4% year-on-year, while real estate investment has decreased by 10.3% [16]. - The coal import volume has continued to grow, with a cumulative import of 43.537 million tons in the first ten months of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.50% [21]. - The prices of thermal coal have remained stable, while coking coal prices have shown a slight recovery month-on-month [27]. - The report suggests that the coal supply-demand relationship is unlikely to loosen further in 2024, with expectations of stable coal prices in the fourth quarter [36]. Supply Side Summary - In the first ten months of 2024, the cumulative production of raw coal reached 3.892 billion tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.20%. The production in October alone was 412 million tons, up 4.60% year-on-year, although it showed a slight month-on-month decline [15]. Demand Side Summary - Manufacturing investment has shown a high growth rate, with a 9.30% increase year-on-year. However, downstream demand remains under pressure, with cumulative growth rates for thermal power, coke, pig iron, and cement showing declines compared to the previous year [19]. Import Summary - The coal import volume has continued to grow, with a cumulative import of 43.537 million tons in the first ten months of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.50%. In October, the import volume was 4.625 million tons, up 28.51% year-on-year [21]. Price and Profit Performance Summary - The average price of Shanxi premium mixed 5500 thermal coal in October was 865 yuan per ton, down 14.68% year-on-year but up 0.64% month-on-month. The average price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1889 yuan per ton, down 23.36% year-on-year but up 6.09% month-on-month [27]. Commentary and Investment Recommendations - The data for October aligns with expectations, and there is potential for improvement in demand. The report recommends focusing on high-dividend stocks and stable high-dividend stocks, highlighting companies such as Guanghui Energy, Pingmei Shenma Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [36].