【宏观周报】地缘政治紧张情绪再度升温

Economic Data - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, accelerating by 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 4.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, maintaining the same growth rate as the first nine months[1] - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.3% year-on-year, while real estate development investment decreased by 10.3%[1] Inflation and Prices - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.3% year-on-year but fell by 1.3% month-on-month[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the industrial sector[1] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China introduced a new buyout-style reverse repurchase tool to enhance liquidity management, aiming to improve the bank system's liquidity[1] - The new tool is expected to cover terms of 3 months and 6 months, enhancing the ability to adjust liquidity across different time frames[1] Geopolitical Tensions - Geopolitical tensions have escalated, particularly in Ukraine and the Korean Peninsula, with significant military developments reported[2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve indicated a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, reflecting a strong economic performance and a lack of urgency to lower rates[2][3]