NIO(09866) 国盛证券·2024-11-26 00:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO-SW (09866 HK) with a target price of HK12 8 billion [3][5] Core Views - NIO's Q3 2024 performance showed strong delivery numbers with 61 855 vehicles delivered including 61 023 NIO brand and 832 Onvo brand vehicles Revenue declined 2 1% YoY but increased 7% QoQ to RMB18 67 billion with gross margin improving to 10 7% [3] - The company expects Q4 2024 revenue to be between RMB19 68-20 38 billion representing 15%-19 2% YoY growth driven by the Onvo brand despite potential softness in NIO brand sales [3] - NIO is rapidly expanding its product matrix with the NT3 0 platform's first model ET9 set for launch in December 2024 and delivery in March 2025 priced at RMB800 000 The Onvo brand is expected to drive growth with new SUV models launching in 2025 [3] - The company aims to double its 2025 sales compared to 2024 supported by its expanding product portfolio and charging infrastructure with 2 737 battery swap stations and 24 282 charging piles globally as of November 20 2024 [3] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 gross margin improved by 2 8pct YoY and 1 1pct QoQ to 10 7% with automotive gross margin reaching 13 1% due to lower BOM costs Non-GAAP net loss narrowed to RMB4 4 billion with a loss margin of 23 6% [3] - For 2024-2026 the report forecasts sales of 220 000 400 000 and 490 000 vehicles respectively with total revenues of RMB66 1 billion RMB102 8 billion and RMB122 1 billion Non-GAAP net loss margins are expected to improve from -27% in 2024 to -11% in 2026 [3] - The company's financials show a strong cash position with RMB32 94 billion in cash and equivalents as of Q3 2024 and total assets of RMB117 38 billion [9] Product and Market Strategy - NIO's product strategy includes the launch of the ET9 under the NIO brand new SUV models under the Onvo brand and the debut of the Firefly brand targeting the compact car market in 2025 [3] - The company plans to expand its charging network significantly in 2025 to support its sales growth aiming for county-level coverage of battery swap stations [3] - NIO maintains a leading position in China's premium EV market with over 40% market share in the RMB300 000+ pure EV segment [3] Valuation and Forecast - The report values NIO at 0 9X 2025e P/S with a target market cap of 47 9 for the HK-listed shares and $6 2 for the US-listed shares [3] - Sales are expected to grow from 222 886 units in 2024 to 492 297 units in 2026 with the Onvo and Firefly brands contributing significantly to the growth [15]