半导体：HBM市场更新：HBM高端产品供不应求时间或长于预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both Micron Technology (MU US) and SK Hynix (000660 KS) with target prices of $148.00 and 259,548 KRW respectively, indicating potential upside of 44% and 47% [2][7]. Core Insights - The HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market is expected to remain in a supply-demand imbalance from 2024 to 2027, driven by increasing demand from AI applications and server investments [19][20]. - Micron is anticipated to enhance its market share in the HBM sector, particularly in the HBM4 era, as it adopts a "jumping" strategy to focus on HBM3E and HBM4 products [6][27]. - SK Hynix is projected to maintain its position as a leading supplier of HBM products, although it may face market share erosion from competitors like Micron and Samsung in the HBM4 and HBM5 eras [6][7]. Financial Data Summary - Micron's expected P/E ratios for FY1E and FY2E are 12.3 and 8.4, with an ROE of 17.1% and an EPS CAGR of 149.8% [2]. - SK Hynix's expected P/E ratios for FY1E and FY2E are 6.7 and 4.5, with an ROE of 26.1% [2]. Demand Analysis - The demand for HBM products is projected to be significantly driven by AI applications, with expected demand reaching 1.4 billion GB in 2024 and 2.4 billion GB in 2025 [5][19]. - Major cloud service providers maintain a positive outlook on AI and server investments, which supports the demand for HBM [19]. Supply Analysis - By the end of 2025, the combined HBM supply from SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung is expected to reach 20.1 billion GB, but demand is projected to outstrip supply, indicating a continued supply-demand imbalance [20]. - The report highlights that SK Hynix and Micron are expected to improve their production yields and capacity, which will be crucial for meeting the anticipated demand [21][22]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the HBM market is expected to intensify as Micron and Samsung aim to capture higher market shares in the HBM4 segment, potentially impacting SK Hynix's market position [6][7]. - The report notes that SK Hynix's current advantage in production yield and customer supply rhythm may be challenged as the industry transitions to HBM4 technology [22]. Equipment and Technology Trends - The report indicates a shift towards mixed bonding technology in HBM production, which is expected to increase equipment investment intensity [26]. - The demand for advanced TCB (Thermal Compression Bonding) equipment is anticipated to rise as companies like Micron and Samsung adopt new manufacturing processes [23][25].