家居国补深度：模式、效果与弹性测算，重视景气&格局向好拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home decoration industry [9] Core Insights - The home decoration industry is experiencing a significant boost from national subsidy policies, which are being implemented across various provinces and cities. The central government has issued supportive measures to enhance the replacement of old home appliances, with local governments actively following suit [5][21] - The subsidy program is expected to stimulate consumer demand, counteracting the anticipated decline in new home completions. Projections for 2025 suggest a potential industry growth rate of over 20%, despite a decline in new home sales [7][21] - Major brands are likely to gain market share as they adapt their pricing and channel strategies effectively, with the report highlighting specific companies to watch, including custom furniture brands and smart home product manufacturers [7][9] Summary by Sections National Subsidy Policy Implementation - The national subsidy policy has been rolled out with over 20 provinces offering subsidies for smart home products and various furniture categories. The subsidy rates vary, with some provinces offering up to 20% [5][21] - The central government has committed to expanding the range and scale of consumer goods eligible for subsidies, with local governments also increasing their support [21][22] Market Dynamics and E-commerce Participation - E-commerce platforms are playing a crucial role in accelerating the implementation of subsidy policies, with major brands collaborating with local governments to offer nationwide subsidies [32][50] - The report notes that the participation of leading brands in the subsidy program has led to significant improvements in sales performance, particularly during promotional events like Double 11 [6][7] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the national subsidy will help stabilize the market amid declining new home completions, with a projected increase in second-hand home sales contributing to overall industry recovery [7][21] - By 2025, the industry is expected to see a rebound in growth, driven by the effects of the subsidy program and a recovery in real estate sales [7][21]