碳中和领域动态追踪（一百四十八）：欧盟对华电动汽车加征关税有望取消，强化涨价逻辑

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - The EU is nearing a resolution to cancel tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which could enhance pricing logic in the market [1][2] - The resolution of the tariff dispute and the reduction of export tax rebates point towards a potential price increase in the industry [2] - If tariffs are significantly reduced or eliminated, it would benefit both volume and price in the European market, leading to increased competitiveness for upstream component manufacturers [2] Summary by Sections Tariff Dispute and Market Dynamics - The EU's tariff dispute with China may be resolved through a price cap mechanism, influenced by changes in European industrial competition policy [2] - The reduction in export tax rebates is a proactive measure in response to global political changes and trade disputes, potentially leading to a price increase in related products [2] Demand and Sales Forecast - Demand for electric vehicles in Europe is currently weak due to high interest rates, economic slowdown, and the gradual removal of subsidies [3] - The upcoming carbon assessment in 2025 may stimulate demand, with a projected sales growth of 25% and a penetration rate of 26% under neutral conditions [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on lithium battery leaders and sectors with short-term price elasticity, such as copper foil and lithium iron phosphate cathodes, including companies like CATL and Hunan Youneng [4] - Consider material leaders with expansion capabilities, such as Shangtai Technology and Xinyuan Materials, as potential investment opportunities [4] - Explore new technologies like sulfide solid-state batteries and silicon-carbon anodes, with companies like Yuanli Co. and Yuyuan New Materials as key players [4]