建筑需求研判第一期：基建资金与需求在改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [10]. Core Insights - Funding for infrastructure projects is improving, with a significant amount of special bonds issued but still unutilized, indicating potential for future investment [5][17]. - In October, infrastructure investment growth accelerated, and the construction PMI showed positive trends, suggesting a recovery in the sector [6][24][29]. - Seasonal and structural factors are influencing demand, with southern regions showing better performance compared to northern areas [46][41]. Summary by Sections Funding Status - Special bonds issuance has largely completed for the year, with a total of 39,417 billion yuan issued, which is 1,389 billion yuan more than the previous year, achieving 101% of the annual target [5][17]. - As of October 20, there remains approximately 20,000 billion yuan in special bonds that have been issued but not yet utilized, with expectations of several thousand to 10,000 billion yuan still available by the end of November [5][17]. Statistical Data - In October, fixed asset investment reached 4.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, while narrow infrastructure investment was 1.9 trillion yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year [24][6]. - The construction PMI for October was 50.4, indicating a positive outlook despite a slight month-on-month decline [29][7]. Physical Workload - Monthly project commencement investment in October was 2.8 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 19%, but the decline is narrowing compared to previous months [31]. - Cement prices have slightly increased, and while overall demand has shown seasonal structural declines, southern regions are performing better than northern regions [41][8]. Conclusion and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that funding will continue to improve towards the end of the year, with a focus on infrastructure-related projects [46]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in quality construction state-owned enterprises and undervalued growth stocks, driven by domestic demand expectations and the "Belt and Road" initiative [48][47].