供给变革系列一：水泥的复盘与展望

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cement industry [1][11][12] Core Viewpoints - The cement industry has seen positive changes on the supply side since May 2024, with a consensus on industry self-discipline and enhanced off-peak production, leading to a gradual recovery in cement prices [1][12] - The path for "capacity reduction" is becoming clearer, with the implementation of capacity replacement policies expected to regulate actual capacity exceeding nominal capacity, which is anticipated to be a major driver for capacity reduction in 2025-2026 [1][13][14] - The report emphasizes that the long-term path for "capacity reduction" is becoming more defined, with expectations for improved profitability and valuation recovery in the cement sector by 2025 [2][11][12] Summary by Sections Supply-Side Reform - The report reviews the successful experiences and shortcomings of supply-side reforms during the 13th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the importance of controlling new capacity, increasing industry concentration, and implementing market-based measures for "capacity reduction" [12][17] - The industry achieved a cumulative profit of 664.1 billion yuan from 2016 to 2020, surpassing the total profit of 2000-2015, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [12][25] Capacity Utilization and Market Dynamics - The report notes that the cement industry maintained a stable capacity of approximately 1.85 billion tons during 2016-2020, with a recovery in capacity utilization from 67% in 2015 to 78% in 2020 [25][30] - The concentration of the top ten enterprises (CR10) increased from 50.8% in 2015 to 55.6% in 2020, reflecting a trend towards greater industry consolidation [25][30] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the demand decline in the cement industry will slow down in 2025, supported by gradual optimization on the supply side [2][12] - The Long Triangle region is identified as the most promising market due to lower overcapacity and higher industry concentration, with key companies recommended including Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and China National Building Material [2][14][12]