2018年复盘与2025年展望：“加关税”如何影响我国出口

Group 1: Tariff Impact Analysis - During Trump's first term, the average tariff on Chinese imports rose from 3.2% to a peak of 21%, affecting up to 66.4% of imports[1] - By August 2024, the share of U.S. imports from China in lists 1, 2, and 3 decreased by 2.65%, 8.35%, and 11.40% respectively compared to 2017[2] - In extreme scenarios, a 60% tariff could lead to a 37.8% decline in exports to the U.S., resulting in a 5.5% drop in overall export growth and a 1.2% reduction in GDP growth[4] Group 2: Export Behavior and Trends - There was a significant "export rush" phenomenon among Chinese companies as tariffs were announced, particularly for high-value products like electronics and machinery[2] - The intensity of the "export rush" was less sensitive to tariff rates and more dependent on the reliance of products on U.S. imports[2] - Long-term impacts show that while exports to the U.S. decline, exports to other countries have increased, maintaining the overall share of affected products in total exports[2] Group 3: Future Tariff Expectations - Market expectations suggest only a 15% chance of a 40% tariff being implemented in the first 100 days of Trump's new term, with a 27% chance of large-scale tariffs within six months[3] - The potential for Trump's administration to adopt a more aggressive approach, such as revoking China's permanent normal trade relations, introduces greater uncertainty in tariff policy[4]