宏观评论（2024年第10期，总第144期）：10月通胀数据解读-2025年上半年CPI当月同比或低位徘徊，下半年PPI当月同比大概率高于上半年

Group 1: CPI Analysis - October CPI year-on-year growth was 0.30%, down from 0.40% in the previous month, marking a four-month low[5] - October food CPI year-on-year growth was 2.90%, while non-food CPI was -0.30%, indicating a divergence in trends influenced by pork prices[7] - November CPI is unlikely to see significant downward movement, with expectations for low growth in the first half of 2025[12] Group 2: PPI Insights - October PPI year-on-year was -2.90%, down from -2.80% in the previous month, reaching the lowest level since December 2023[5] - Durable goods PPI saw a significant decline of 1.0 percentage point, the lowest since December 2006, indicating ongoing economic pressure[22] - November PPI is not expected to rise significantly, with the lowest point of 2025 likely occurring in the first half of the year[28] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with a low probability of a rate decrease in December[34] - Global economic pressures and low consumer confidence, reflected in a 4.90% year-on-year increase in disposable income, suggest continued economic challenges[17] - The relationship between durable goods PPI and real estate investment indicates potential economic correlations, despite a low correlation coefficient[26]