国君石化|上游盈利保持增长,关注下游复苏节奏

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for mid-to-downstream leading companies with significant recovery potential and a long-term favorable view on undervalued upstream high-dividend stocks [1]. Core Insights - Geopolitical premiums are declining, with significant downward pressure on crude oil prices expected due to increased shale oil supply from the U.S. following the election of Trump, and a likely easing of macroeconomic pressures on oil prices [1]. - Upstream profitability is expected to continue growing, with major oil companies maintaining their strategies for increasing reserves and production, resulting in year-on-year growth in oil and gas output and profitability [1]. - The downstream chemical sector is currently in a bottoming phase, but recovery is anticipated as demand rebounds and new projects commence in 2025, with specific segments like light hydrocarbons benefiting from improved cost dynamics [2]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - The upstream sector has seen consistent growth in oil and gas production, with major companies like CNOOC and PetroChina focusing on increasing reserves and production [1]. - The oil service industry is also recovering, with leading companies reporting year-on-year revenue and profit growth [1]. Downstream Sector - The downstream chemical products are under pressure due to rising penetration of new energy and peak oil demand, but recovery is expected as economic stimulus policies take effect [2]. - Specific segments such as light hydrocarbons are benefiting from improved price differentials, while the coal chemical sector is facing challenges due to product price declines and rising coal prices [2].