特朗普新一届内阁班底有何特点|国君热点研究

Trump Administration 2.0 Key Appointments - Loyalty is prioritized, with key appointees aligning closely with Trump's policies[2] - Majority of appointees come from business and finance sectors[2] - Strong anti-China stance across key positions[2] Economic and Trade Projections - US economic scenario: "soft landing + mild reflation" expected by 2025[1][4] - Potential tariff increase on Chinese goods to 30%-40% by mid-2025[3] - Estimated 10%-40% decline in Chinese exports to US, averaging 25%[4] - Overall impact on Chinese exports: approximately 3.8% reduction[4] Market and Currency Implications - US 10-year Treasury yield expected to decline by end of 2025[4] - RMB exchange rate: short-term appreciation followed by stabilization, with potential pressure in 2025[5] - Global liquidity and US stock market expected to benefit from soft landing scenario[4] Risk Factors - Potential for faster-than-expected tariff implementation[6] - New technology sector restrictions possible[6] - Risk of secondary inflation shock in extreme scenarios[1][4]