煤炭行业周报：政策带来长期机会，红利板块支撑煤炭平稳运行

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - Short-term prices for thermal coal remain at the bottom, but future policy adjustments are expected to open up market space [3][11] - The coking coal market is currently weak, and patience is required for a potential recovery [3][30] - The defensive attributes of the coal sector may highlight its stability in a volatile secondary market [4] - Overall, both thermal and coking coal prices are low, but thermal coal shows better liquidity and potential for mid-to-long-term recovery [4][59] Market Performance - The coal sector has shown relative stability despite a general market decline, with the coal index down 0.88% while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.91% [9] - The majority of coal companies experienced declines, with the largest gainers being Xinda A, Huaihe Energy, and Liaoning Energy, while the largest losers included Shanxi Coal International, Xinji Energy, and Jinkong Coal [9] Thermal Coal Analysis - Thermal coal prices are currently in a bottoming phase, with supply remaining ample and demand limited due to supply guarantee policies [11][12] - The average daily inventory of thermal coal at ports is 28.8 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.21 million tons [15] - The price of thermal coal at various production sites remains low, with prices in Inner Mongolia at 641 CNY/ton, Shanxi at 700 CNY/ton, and Shaanxi at 920 CNY/ton [12] Coking Coal Analysis - Coking coal prices are also at low levels, with supply exceeding demand, and improvements in downstream sectors are needed for a market turnaround [30][31] - The average daily inventory of coking coal at major ports has increased, indicating a buyer's market with high supply [33] Shipping Situation - Shipping capacity remains at historical lows, with an average of 55 vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim area [41] - Freight rates have shown significant increases, indicating a potential correlation with improved market liquidity [41] Industry News - The China Coal Industry Association predicts a significant increase in the deployment of unmanned mining trucks by 2026 [47] - The National Development and Reform Commission reports that national coal inventories remain above 200 million tons, ensuring supply stability for the winter heating season [47]