食品饮料行业周报：估值低位，静待修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the food and beverage industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently in a phase of stock (volume reduction) competition. As of November 20, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that the production of liquor (converted to 65 degrees, commodity volume) in October was 340,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%. The cumulative production from January to October was 3.32 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [1][41]. - The report suggests that the food and beverage sector has already undergone significant corrections, and the sentiment has likely reached its lowest point. With positive policy guidance, medium to long-term demand is expected to gradually improve [1][43]. - The report highlights that the current period for liquor consumption is off-peak, with companies focusing on controlling volume and stabilizing prices in preparation for the 2025 Spring Festival sales [1][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Trends - From November 18 to November 22, the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index decreased by 4.08%, ranking 30th among Shenwan's primary industries. The top three performing industries were comprehensive (+5.08%), retail (+2.18%), and textile and apparel (+0.06%) [15]. 2. Price Fluctuations - During the same period, the price of Feitian Moutai (loose bottle) fell from 2,220 RMB/bottle to 2,210 RMB/bottle, while the original Feitian Moutai dropped from 2,280 RMB/bottle to 2,255 RMB/bottle. The price of Wuliangye (8th generation) remained at 950 RMB/bottle, and Guojiao 1573 stayed at 860 RMB/bottle [21][43]. 3. Industry News - The report notes that the liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment period, with companies like Shede Liquor actively managing inventory and pricing strategies to enhance sales performance [34][39]. 4. Key Company Announcements - Jinhuijiu's major shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company through centralized bidding or block trading, with a total investment of no less than 50 million RMB and no more than 100 million RMB [40]. 5. Weekly Insights - The report emphasizes that the food and beverage sector has seen significant corrections, and the sentiment is expected to improve with ongoing consumer promotion policies. It recommends focusing on companies like Wuliangye, Guizhou Moutai, and Shanxi Fenjiu [1][43][44].