基础化工行业投资策略：供给侧改革引领化工牛市

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - Supply-side reform is expected to lead the chemical industry bull market, with comprehensive improvement in supply and demand, and a transition from focusing on market share to profitability [3][20] - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in demand due to global economic improvements and domestic policy stimuli, while cost pressures from fluctuating international oil prices remain uncertain [3][20] - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in leading chemical companies as market sentiment improves and foreign capital returns [3][20] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Improvement - Supply-side: The chemical industry faced profit pressure due to capacity release, but fixed asset investment growth has slowed, indicating marginal improvement in supply [3][11] - Demand-side: Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may boost demand, alongside domestic policies aimed at stimulating chemical demand recovery [3][26] - Cost-side: International oil prices are experiencing high volatility, which may have uncertain short-term impacts on the chemical sector's elasticity [3][11] Leading Chemical Companies - Leading companies are expected to benefit first from valuation recovery due to favorable policies and economic conditions [3][20] - Recommended leading stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, and others [3][20] Growth in New Materials - The report emphasizes the growth potential in new materials and technologies, with a focus on sectors such as OLED materials and specialty plastics [3][20]