Workflow
煤炭行业周报政策带来长期机会,红利板块支撑煤炭平稳运行
Datong Securities·2024-11-26 10:30

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - Short-term prices for thermal coal remain at the bottom, but subsequent policy adjustments are expected to open up market space [3][11] - The coking coal market is currently weak, and patience is required for a potential recovery [3][30] - The defensive attributes of the coal sector may become a highlight amid short-term market fluctuations [4] - Overall, both thermal and coking coal prices are at low levels, with thermal coal showing better liquidity and potential for medium-term recovery [4][59] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal sector has shown relative stability despite a slight decline, outperforming most other sectors [9] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.91%, while the coal sector index decreased by only 0.88% [9] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices are currently in a bottoming phase, with supply remaining ample and demand limited due to supply policies [11][12] - The average daily inventory of thermal coal at ports is 28.8 million tons, reflecting an increase in market liquidity [15] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are also at low levels, with supply exceeding demand, and a recovery is not expected in the short term [30][31] - The average daily inventory of coking coal at major ports has risen, indicating a buyer's market [33] Shipping Situation - Shipping capacity remains at historical lows, with an average of 55 vessels at anchor [41] - Freight rates have shown a noticeable increase, likely linked to improved market liquidity [41] Industry News - The China Coal Industry Association predicts a significant increase in the deployment of unmanned mining trucks by 2026 [47] - The National Development and Reform Commission reports that coal stocks at regulated power plants remain above 200 million tons, ensuring energy supply during the winter [47]