【粤开宏观】如何看待特朗普宣布对华加征 10%关税？上一轮关税复盘及未来路径推演

Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Impact - Trump announced a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods due to fentanyl issues, with a potential 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada[4] - The previous round of tariffs raised the average tariff rate on Chinese imports from 3.1% in early 2018 to 21% by the end of 2019[5] - The new tariffs are seen as a significant external risk to the Chinese economy, necessitating a thorough assessment and response strategy[4] Group 2: Legal Framework and Procedures - The legal basis for the new tariffs includes the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which allows for immediate action without congressional approval[8] - Previous tariffs were implemented under various legal provisions, including Sections 232, 201, and 301 of U.S. trade law, which require different levels of investigation and congressional involvement[8] - The process for revoking China's Most Favored Nation status would require a vote from both houses of Congress, making it more complex[8] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Projections - The first round of tariffs under Trump (2018-2019) affected approximately $370 billion worth of goods, accounting for 68.7% of U.S. imports from China[9] - Future tariffs could potentially increase the average tariff rate on Chinese goods to between 40% and 50%, with some products facing tariffs exceeding 60%[11] - The worst-case scenario could see tariffs on all Chinese goods rise to 60%, but this is considered unlikely due to potential economic backlash[11] Group 4: China's Response Strategies - China is advised to implement countermeasures, including tariff retaliation and diversifying export markets to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs[14] - Strengthening internal policies and increasing domestic demand are recommended to offset potential declines in external demand[14] - Enhancing the competitiveness of exports through regional adjustments and partnerships, particularly with Belt and Road Initiative countries, is crucial[14]