中药行业2025年策略报告：蓄势两季再冲锋

Investment Rating - The report rates the traditional Chinese medicine industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The overall performance of the traditional Chinese medicine sector is expected to be under pressure from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, but a recovery in performance and stock prices is anticipated starting in Q2 2025 [2][8] - The first three quarters of 2024 saw overall performance pressure, with revenue growth rates of -0.5%, -6.1%, and -3.6%, and net profit growth rates of -8.4%, -10.6%, and -6.2% respectively [13] - The price index of traditional Chinese medicinal materials has declined, which is expected to alleviate margin pressure [39] Summary by Sections 2024 Review - The traditional Chinese medicine sector faced significant performance challenges in the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to rising costs of medicinal materials, weak consumer demand, and increased competition [13][15] - The sector's valuation is slightly above the average of the past three years, with a TTM P/E ratio of 27.89x compared to the average of 25.98x [32][30] Core Indicator Tracking - The price index of traditional Chinese medicinal materials has been declining since mid-July 2024, which is expected to ease margin pressures for companies in the sector [39] - Flu data has shown improvement compared to the previous year, but cold and flu medication may face growth pressure due to high base effects from last year [44] - Terminal sales have been under pressure, but a recovery is expected in 2025 as inventory levels normalize [46] Policy Pressure Expected to Ease - The price reduction in centralized procurement for traditional Chinese medicine has been relatively moderate, benefiting well-competitive products [48] - The new batch of national traditional Chinese medicine centralized procurement aligns with expectations, with ongoing procurement processes in various provinces [48][49] Investment Recommendations - Companies with potential margin improvement include Dong'e Ejiao, Tongrentang, and Pianzaihuang [3] - Companies experiencing turnaround and valuation recovery include Tianshili and Jichuan Pharmaceutical [3] - Stable assets with low volatility and dividends include Lingrui Pharmaceutical, Yunnan Baiyao, and China Resources Sanjiu [3]