Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - The climate mitigation policies of the EU, US, and China are expected to reshape trade dynamics for developing countries, impacting demand for fossil fuels and energy-intensive manufacturing while creating opportunities in critical minerals and renewable energy technologies [2][9] - The policies will likely lead to reduced oil prices and increased prices for critical minerals, facilitating a decrease in green technology costs and promoting green foreign investment [2][9] Summary by Sections Section 1: Introduction - The EU, US, and China are responsible for nearly half of global greenhouse gas emissions and are implementing various climate policies to mitigate these emissions [7] - The EU focuses on emissions pricing through the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), while the US emphasizes subsidies via the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and China utilizes an intensity-based ETS [7][9] Section 2: Climate Change Mitigation Policies - The EU's Fit for 55 package aims for a 55% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, while the US IRA allocates approximately 760 billion spent from 2010 to 2019, making it the largest investor in this sector [16] Section 3: Impacts on Trade - The report identifies three main channels through which climate policies affect developing countries: shifts in supply and demand, price changes, and access to technology [9][66] - Developing countries that produce low-carbon goods may benefit from increased export opportunities, while those reliant on fossil fuel exports may face significant challenges [25][73] Section 4: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that developing countries should adapt their policies to leverage opportunities from the green transition while mitigating negative impacts from climate policies enacted by major economies [2][9]
Global Ripple Effects
世界银行·2024-11-26 23:08