石油石化行业深度报告：石化周期已达底部，左侧布局正当时

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the petrochemical sector, indicating a neutral outlook for investment opportunities in the industry [3]. Core Insights - The petrochemical cycle is believed to have reached its bottom, with expectations of a recovery phase beginning in the second half of the following year as global demand improves [5]. - The report highlights that the average cash cost of newly built or upgraded ethylene capacity in China is projected to be around $688 per ton by 2027, positioning it favorably on the cost curve compared to global peers [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, suggesting that a rate cut typically signals the bottom of a petrochemical cycle [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of Petrochemical Cycle - The petrochemical cycle typically spans about seven years, with extreme events causing short-term downturns without altering the overall cycle logic [23]. - Major negative events during downturns can accelerate the cycle, leading to the clearing of outdated capacities and hastening the onset of recovery [23]. - The report notes that the trend of de-globalization has led to a divergence in regional indices and oil price movements [23]. 2. Current Trends in the Refining Industry - Global refining capacity is projected to grow, with 2023 figures showing a capacity of 10349.8 million barrels per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase [29]. - The report indicates that while new refining projects are anticipated, the overall demand for traditional petrochemical products may not keep pace with capacity growth, leading to potential oversupply [33]. - The refining industry is expected to enter a slow growth phase, with significant capacity increases anticipated primarily in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions [36]. 3. Ethylene Production Landscape - The global ethylene production capacity has been on an upward trend, with Asia and North America being the primary contributors to this growth [54]. - The report forecasts that North America's ethylene production growth will slow down, with only a modest increase expected by 2030 [59]. - China's ethylene production is expected to benefit from lower operational costs and technological advancements, positioning it as a potential leader in the global ethylene market [4].