公用事业行业点评报告：广东25年电力交易方案发布，超额回收+变动成本补偿平滑核电电价波动

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - Guangdong Province has released the 2025 electricity market trading plan, maintaining the benchmark electricity price while increasing market trading scale. The reference price for 2025 is set at 0.463 yuan/kWh, with annual trading volume expected to reach approximately 650 billion kWh, up from 600 billion kWh in 2024 [1] - The nuclear power market will implement two pricing mechanisms: a government-authorized unilateral price difference contract mechanism and a variable cost compensation mechanism. The actual execution price will be determined based on the market trading average and the reference price [1] - The report highlights that the excess recovery approach remains unchanged, with a variable cost compensation coefficient of 0.85 to smooth out price fluctuations. The actual execution price for nuclear power is projected to decline by approximately 60%-80% compared to market average declines [1] Summary by Sections Market Trading Plan - The 2025 Guangdong electricity market scale is projected at 650 billion kWh, with an annual trading upper limit of 380 billion kWh. All coal-fired power plants and gas plants in the province will participate in market trading, along with nuclear power plants [1] - New energy sources, including centralized wind and solar power, will also enter the market, with specific participation ratios set for different voltage levels [1] Nuclear Power Pricing Mechanisms - The report outlines the two mechanisms for nuclear power pricing, emphasizing the role of the government in determining the "real market price" and the variable cost compensation mechanism to stabilize prices [1] - The variable cost compensation coefficient of 0.85 is designed to reduce the impact of market price declines on nuclear power pricing [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on "China Nuclear Power" and "China General Nuclear Power," suggesting that operators in the nuclear sector are entering a phase of accelerated production [1]